Guangzhou E-Power v Heilongjiang Lava Spring prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Guangzhou E-Power 3–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring GUANGZHOU E-POWER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guangzhou E-Power win~~70%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.139

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.101

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guangzhou E-Power win at 70%.
1′KICK-OFF Guangzhou E-Power v Heilongjiang Lava Spring
2′Little has changed for our model: Guangzhou E-Power 70% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–17–12
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Guangzhou E-Power 0–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · M. Palacios
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Hao Yucheng · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
24′M. Palacios scores for Heilongjiang Lava Spring on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 39–26–35
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 39% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 71% now
25′M. Palacios scores for Heilongjiang Lava Spring on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 38–26–36
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 71% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 39% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 38% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Guangzhou E-Power 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · Hou Yu
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Li Zhi · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
45′32′ and it is 1–1: Hou Yu on the scoresheet for Guangzhou E-Power. 1–1 · 56–30–14
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Huang Shenghao · Guangzhou E-Power
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 56% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Guangzhou E-Power 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Gao Huaze · Off: Yang Hao
46′SECOND HALF Guangzhou E-Power 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangzhou E-Power · On: O. Camara · Off: Liang Xueming
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 56% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 56% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Guangzhou E-Power win: 70% at kick-off, 56% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Liu Bin · Off: Liu Langzhou
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Du Jia · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: S. Gao · Off: Zhang Zimin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: B. Yang · Off: Li Zhi
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Guangzhou E-Power 2–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · O. Camara
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Xiao Kun · Off: Hou Yu
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Zhang Yujie · Off: Hao Yucheng
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: M. Petrov · Off: Chen Po-Liang
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Yan Jiahao · Off: Daciel
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Wang Jingbin · Off: Joao Carlos
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Wang Jingbin · Off: Joao Carlos
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Guangzhou E-Power 3–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · O. Camara
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Liu Bin · Guangzhou E-Power
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' O. Camara · Guangzhou E-Power
FTFULL TIME Guangzhou E-Power 3–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FTGuangzhou E-Power 3–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · Guangzhou E-Power win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Guangzhou E-Power win70%

Draw18%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueHuangpu Sports Center

Line-ups

Guangzhou E-Power

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guangzhou E-Power

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

4Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Guangzhou E-Power

Formation not confirmed

22 Xiao Jiaqi

4 Liu Langzhou

3 Han Xuan

16 Liao Junjian

17 Yang Hao

39 Huang Shenghao

34 Hou Yu

25 Wang Chien-Ming

11 Nikao

20 Joao Carlos

10 Liang Xueming

Coach · Feng Feng

Substitutes

19 · Chen Junxu

15 · Deng Biao

5 · Jiang Jihong

2 · Liu Bin

8 · Cai Haochang

27 · Gao Huaze

43 · Xiao Kun

24 · J. Wang

6 · Duan Yunzi

29 · Wang Jingbin

18 · H. Wang

7 · O. Camara

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Formation not confirmed

31 Xiao Yuanming

3 Zhu Mingxin

17 Chen Po-Liang

4 Daciel

34 Hao Yucheng

6 Zhu Jiaxuan

8 Zhang Zimin

16 Li Zhi

7 M. Palacios

11 Erikys

10 Tang Shi

Coach · Biao Mao

Substitutes

1 · Du Jia

2 · Zhang Yujie

45 · B. Yang

33 · Yan Jiahao

23 · Du Junpeng

22 · S. Gao

18 · Fan Bojian

21 · Hu Jiajin

37 · M. Petrov

19 · Han Yuchen

Our number · guangzhou e-power winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

70% The market74%

Us70%

~~Market~~74%

We make Guangzhou E-Power a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guangzhou e-power win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangzhou E-Power win	70%	74%	−5
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Heilongjiang Lava Spring win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Guangzhou E-Power or draw	88%	90%	−2
Guangzhou E-Power clean sheet	39%	–	–
Heilongjiang Lava Spring clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%

0123450 4.2 2.6 1 7.6 8.3 3.6 2 9.8 9.1 4.3 3 8.0 7.4 3.5 4 5.1 4.7 2.2 5 2.7 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangzhou E-Power down, Heilongjiang Lava Spring across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,539 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guangzhou E-Power at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heilongjiang Lava Spring away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.50 goals for Guangzhou E-Power, 0.94 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HEI 1–3 GUA · GUA 0–1 HEI · HEI 1–1 GUA

Form · last six in League One

GUANGZHOU E-POWER

WWDDWW5–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING

LLLLDD1–2 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	35
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	31
12	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
13	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16