Guangxi Hengchen v Wuxi Wugou prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Guangxi HengchenDrawWuxi Wugou

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Guangxi Hengchen 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guangxi Hengchen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guangxi Hengchen 51%, draw 25%, Wuxi Wugou 24%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Guangxi Hengchen v Wuxi WugouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Guangxi Hengchen win51%

Draw25%

Wuxi Wugou win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueGuangxi Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guangxi Hengchen

Wuxi Wugou

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guangxi hengchen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Guangxi Hengchen a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guangxi Hengchen v Wuxi Wugou~~1.74 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 36~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangxi Hengchen win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Wuxi Wugou win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Guangxi Hengchen or draw	76%	–	–
Guangxi Hengchen clean sheet	33%	–	–
Wuxi Wugou clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 5.6 3.7 1 9.1 11.8 6.1 2.3 2 8.6 9.3 5.2 2.0 3 5.0 5.4 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangxi Hengchen down, Wuxi Wugou across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guangxi Hengchen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wuxi Wugou away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Guangxi Hengchen, 1.13 for Wuxi Wugou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~WUX 0–1 GUA · GUA 1–2 WUX · WUX 1–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 18 Sept

GUANGXI HENGCHEN

WWLDDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

WUXI WUGOU

WLWDWL3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	+17	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	+10	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Hebei Kungfu	28	+1	40
7	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	28	−5	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Nanjing City	28	−12	28
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	28	−36	16