Guangxi Hengchen v Shenzhen Juniors prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Guangxi Hengchen 1–1 Shenzhen Juniors GUANGXI HENGCHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guangxi Hengchen win~~52%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guangxi Hengchen win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Guangxi Hengchen v Shenzhen Juniors
2′Much as we predicted: Guangxi Hengchen was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
3′Much as we predicted: Guangxi Hengchen was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Guangxi Hengchen 0–0 Shenzhen Juniors · Rodrigo Henrique
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Shenzhen Juniors · Rodrigo Henrique
39′23′ and it is 0–1: Rodrigo Henrique on the scoresheet for Shenzhen Juniors. 0–1 · 18–26–56
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Guangxi Hengchen win: 52% at kick-off, 18% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Shenzhen Juniors win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Guangxi Hengchen win 18%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Guangxi Hengchen win: 52% at kick-off, 50% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Guangxi Hengchen win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Shenzhen Juniors win 24%)
40′23′ and it is 0–1: Rodrigo Henrique on the scoresheet for Shenzhen Juniors. 0–1 · 17–26–56
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Guangxi Hengchen win: 52% at kick-off, 50% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Guangxi Hengchen win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Shenzhen Juniors win 24%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Guangxi Hengchen win: 52% at kick-off, 18% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Shenzhen Juniors win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Guangxi Hengchen win 18%)
45′SECOND HALF Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Shenzhen Juniors
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Shi Yucheng · Shenzhen Juniors
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Guangxi Hengchen win: 52% at kick-off, 18% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Shenzhen Juniors win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Guangxi Hengchen win 18%)
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Zhang Zijian · Off: H. Luan
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Guangxi Hengchen · On: X. Ji · Off: Dai Ming
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Shenzhen Juniors · On: G. Zhu · Off: Liu Xiaolong
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Gan Xianhao · Off: Shi Yucheng
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Ablimit Subi · Off: Khedrup Lobsang
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Liang Yibin · Off: K. Ren
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Chen Yuhao · Off: Sun Qinhan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Zhao Yingjie · Off: Zhong Haoran
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Leung Nok-Hang · Off: J. Nouble
77′🟨 YELLOW · 79' G. Zhu · Shenzhen Juniors
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Guangxi Hengchen · On: W. Ning · Off: N. Mbo
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Guangxi Hengchen 1–1 Shenzhen Juniors · L. Lapoussin
FTFULL TIME Guangxi Hengchen 1–1 Shenzhen Juniors
FTGuangxi Hengchen 1–1 Shenzhen Juniors · Guangxi Hengchen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Guangxi Hengchen win52%

Draw25%

Shenzhen Juniors win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueGuangxi Sports Center

Line-ups

Guangxi Hengchen

Shenzhen Juniors

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guangxi Hengchen

Shenzhen Juniors

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Guangxi Hengchen

Formation not confirmed

41 Liang Kun

32 S. Li

5 H. Luan

6 G. Chen

3 X. Yuan

21 Dai Ming

23 Khedrup Lobsang

25 K. Ren

10 R. Ardazishvili

11 L. Lapoussin

36 N. Mbo

Coach · Junwei Liu

Substitutes

39 · Zhang Jianzhi

27 · Zhang Zijian

28 · Ablimit Subi

4 · Z. Zhang

20 · Lu Junhui

24 · X. Ji

16 · W. Ning

42 · Ji Tianle

7 · D. Chen

44 · Liang Yibin

12 · Yao-hsing Yu

19 · Cen Liyi

Shenzhen Juniors

Formation not confirmed

23 Cheng Yuelei

13 Sun Qinhan

20 R. Dugalic

16 Zhou Xin

37 Shang Yin

18 Shi Yucheng

6 Zhong Haoran

19 Su Yuliang

25 Rodrigo Henrique

28 Liu Xiaolong

38 J. Nouble

Coach · David Pirri

Substitutes

41 · Liu Haoran

33 · Zhao Yingjie

2 · Chen Yuhao

24 · Leung Nok-Hang

14 · Huang Jiajun

32 · G. Zhu

21 · Y. Chen

30 · Gan Xianhao

15 · Su Yuanjie

29 · Lin Zefeng

17 · Hu Ming

11 · K. Huang

Our number · guangxi hengchen winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

52% The market46%

Us52%

~~Market~~46%

We make Guangxi Hengchen a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guangxi hengchen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangxi Hengchen win	52%	46%	+6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Shenzhen Juniors win	23%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	0
Guangxi Hengchen or draw	77%	73%	+4
Guangxi Hengchen clean sheet	32%	–	–
Shenzhen Juniors clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 5.0 3.4 1 8.4 11.4 6.0 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangxi Hengchen down, Shenzhen Juniors across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,539 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guangxi Hengchen at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shenzhen Juniors away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Guangxi Hengchen, 1.16 for Shenzhen Juniors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–1 GUA

Form · last six in League One

GUANGXI HENGCHEN

WLWWWL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

SHENZHEN JUNIORS

WWWDDL3–1 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	35
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	31
12	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
13	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16