Guangxi Hengchen v Changchun Yatai

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guangxi Hengchen win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Guangxi Hengchen was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF Guangxi Hengchen v Changchun Yatai
4. 8′A red card for Guangxi Hengchen on 8′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 51–26–23
5. 8′🟥 RED CARD · 8' Liang Kun · Guangxi Hengchen
6. 10′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Dai Jiatong · Off: X. Ji
7. 34′34′: Tan Long on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai. 0–0 · 46–32–23
8. 34′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–26–54
9. 34′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 20–26–54
10. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Changchun Yatai · Tan Long (assist O. Omoijuanfo)
11. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 20% now
12. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Changchun Yatai win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Guangxi Hengchen win 20%)
13. 36′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
14. 45′HALF-TIME Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Changchun Yatai
15. 45′SECOND HALF Guangxi Hengchen 0–1 Changchun Yatai
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Changchun Yatai · On: Tudi Dilyimit · Off: Chen Xuhuang
17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: D. Chen · Off: Wei Chaolun Corrected
18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Zhang Zijian · Off: Liang Yibin
19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: D. Chen · Off: R. Ardazishvili
20. 49′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
21. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
22. 53′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–21
23. 53′L. Lapoussin scores for Guangxi Hengchen on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–21
24. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Guangxi Hengchen 1–1 Changchun Yatai
25. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 39% now
26. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Changchun Yatai win 20%)
27. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Changchun Yatai · On: Jiang Zilei · Off: Wang Weipu
28. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Changchun Yatai · On: Zhou Dadi · Off: Fan Chao
29. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Tudi Dilyimit · Changchun Yatai
30. 60′60′: Tan Long on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai. 1–1 · 35–46–19
31. 61′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
32. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Guangxi Hengchen 1–2 Changchun Yatai · Tan Long (assist Zhou Dadi)
33. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 9% now
34. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Changchun Yatai win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
35. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Guangxi Hengchen · On: K. Ren · Off: S. Li
36. 66′L. Lapoussin scores for Guangxi Hengchen on 66′. 1–2 · 7–24–69
37. 66′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–52–17
38. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Guangxi Hengchen 2–2 Changchun Yatai · L. Lapoussin
39. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 31% now
40. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Changchun Yatai win 17%)
41. 67′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–53–17
42. 68′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–54–16
43. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: C. Benhaddouche
44. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
45. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' C. Reiner · Changchun Yatai
46. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Changchun Yatai · On: Wu Zhicheng · Off: Li Qiang
47. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
48. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Ablimit Subi · Off: H. Luan
49. 92′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
50. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Guangxi Hengchen win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
51. FTFULL TIME Guangxi Hengchen 2–2 Changchun Yatai
52. FTGuangxi Hengchen 2–2 Changchun Yatai · Guangxi Hengchen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.