Dongguan United v Ningbo Professional prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dongguan UnitedDrawNingbo Professional

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ningbo Professional 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ningbo Professional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dongguan United 26%, draw 27%, Ningbo Professional 47%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Dongguan United v Ningbo ProfessionalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dongguan United win26%

Draw27%

Ningbo Professional win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueFoshan International Sports and Cultural Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dongguan United

Ningbo Professional

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Ningbo Professional	28	−5	31
16	Dongguan United	28	−36	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ningbo professional winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Ningbo Professional a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dongguan United v Ningbo Professional~~1.08 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 31~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dongguan United win	26%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ningbo Professional win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Dongguan United or draw	53%	–	–
Dongguan United clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ningbo Professional clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 10.2 8.5 4.4 1 7.0 12.8 8.9 4.6 2 4.4 6.4 4.8 2.5 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dongguan United down, Ningbo Professional across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dongguan United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ningbo Professional away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Dongguan United, 1.55 for Ningbo Professional. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NIN 1–0 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

DONGGUAN UNITED

LDWLLL2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 0–5 · 2–5

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL

LLLDDL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	+17	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	+10	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Hebei Kungfu	28	+1	40
7	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	28	−5	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Nanjing City	28	−12	28
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	28	−36	16