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Dongguan United v Nanjing City

Dongguan United

2–5Full time

Nanjing City

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Foshan International Sports and Cultural Center

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Dongguan United 2–5 Nanjing City NANJING CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nanjing City win~~39%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nanjing City win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nanjing City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Dongguan United v Nanjing City
12′Nanjing City ahead on 12′ through Ze Vitor. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
12′We published Nanjing City at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 13–19–68
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Dongguan United 0–1 Nanjing City · Ze Vitor
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Nanjing City win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Nanjing City win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
29′We published Nanjing City at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Dongguan United 0–1 Nanjing City
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nanjing City · On: Zhai Zhaoyu · Off: Yang Dejiang
46′SECOND HALF Dongguan United 0–1 Nanjing City
51′Wang Xijie scores for Nanjing City on 51′. 0–1 · 6–20–74
52′We published Nanjing City at 39%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Dongguan United 0–2 Nanjing City · Wang Xijie
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Nanjing City win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
55′We published Nanjing City at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
60′59′: J. Ngom Mbekeli on the scoresheet for Nanjing City, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Dongguan United 0–3 Nanjing City · J. Ngom Mbekeli
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Nanjing City win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
63′We published Nanjing City at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Meng Zhen · Nanjing City
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Nanjing City · On: Zheng Xuejian · Off: Hu Rentian
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Nanjing City · On: Zhu Qiwen · Off: Bruno Baio
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dongguan United · On: Jin Liangkuan · Off: Liu Zongyuan
72′Dongguan United pull one back on 72′ through Zhong Ziqin. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dongguan United 1–3 Nanjing City · Zhong Ziqin (penalty)
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dongguan United · On: W. Jiang · Off: N. Benavides
81′Ze Vitor scores for Nanjing City on 80′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Dongguan United 1–4 Nanjing City · Ze Vitor
82′82′: M. Ndiaye on the scoresheet for Dongguan United, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–99
82′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–99
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Dongguan United 2–4 Nanjing City · M. Ndiaye
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dongguan United · On: Mu Zihan · Off: Zhong Ziqin
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dongguan United · On: Yu Zean · Off: Aniwar Abduwahap
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nanjing City · On: An Bang · Off: W. Qurban
93′Nanjing City ahead on 90′ through Ze Vitor. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
93′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Dongguan United 2–5 Nanjing City · Ze Vitor
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Nanjing City · On: Hu Jinghang · Off: J. Ngom Mbekeli
FTFULL TIME Dongguan United 2–5 Nanjing City
FTDongguan United 2–5 Nanjing City · Nanjing City win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nanjing City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dongguan United 33%, draw 28%, Nanjing City 39%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dongguan United v Nanjing CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dongguan United win33%

Draw28%

Nanjing City win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueFoshan International Sports and Cultural Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dongguan United

Nanjing City

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nanjing city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

39% The market58%

Us39%

~~Market~~58%

We make Nanjing City a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dongguan United v Nanjing City~~1.23 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 25~~16 v 14

~~The market · Nanjing City win~~58% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nanjing City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dongguan United win	33%	18%	+15
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Nanjing City win	39%	58%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Dongguan United or draw	61%	42%	+19
Dongguan United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Nanjing City clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.9 9.2 6.9 3.2 1 8.2 13.3 8.3 3.8 2 5.7 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.4 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dongguan United down, Nanjing City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 League One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dongguan United at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nanjing City away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Dongguan United, 1.37 for Nanjing City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NAN 3–1 DON · NAN 1–1 DON · DON 1–3 NAN · DON 0–0 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

DONGGUAN UNITED

DLDWLL0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 0–5

NANJING CITY

LLLLDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	27	0	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16