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Dalian Huayi v Guangxi Hengchen

Dalian Huayi

3–2Full time

Guangxi Hengchen

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:34

Dalian Huayi 3–2 Guangxi Hengchen GUANGXI HENGCHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guangxi Hengchen win~~40%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guangxi Hengchen win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guangxi Hengchen was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Huayi v Guangxi Hengchen
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Long Tingwei · Dalian Huayi
33′N. Mushekwi scores for Dalian Huayi on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Dalian Huayi 1–0 Guangxi Hengchen · N. Mushekwi
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Guangxi Hengchen win: 40% at kick-off, 13% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Dalian Huayi win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Guangxi Hengchen win 36%)
34′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–23–13
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–12
38′38′: N. Mushekwi on the scoresheet for Dalian Huayi, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Dalian Huayi 2–0 Guangxi Hengchen · N. Mushekwi
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Guangxi Hengchen win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
39′We said Guangxi Hengchen at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 89–9–3
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Huayi 2–0 Guangxi Hengchen
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' K. Hansen · Dalian Huayi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: K. Ren · Off: S. Li
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Huayi 2–0 Guangxi Hengchen
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangxi Hengchen · On: R. Ardazishvili · Off: Dai Ming
47′Dalian Huayi ahead on 47′ through Long Tingwei. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Dalian Huayi 3–0 Guangxi Hengchen · Long Tingwei
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Guangxi Hengchen win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–2–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Yao-hsing Yu · Off: N. Mbo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dalian Huayi · On: C. Bayala · Off: Lei Wenjie
64′L. Lapoussin scores for Guangxi Hengchen on 64′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Dalian Huayi 3–1 Guangxi Hengchen · L. Lapoussin
65′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lin Longchang · Dalian Huayi
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' R. Ardazishvili · Guangxi Hengchen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Ji Tianle · Off: D. Chen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dalian Huayi · On: Lu Kun · Off: Lin Longchang
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guangxi Hengchen · On: Liang Yibin · Off: X. Ji
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dalian Huayi · On: Cui Ming'an · Off: Y. Wu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dalian Huayi · On: Xu Dongdong · Off: K. Hansen
89′89′: Liang Yibin on the scoresheet for Guangxi Hengchen, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Dalian Huayi 3–2 Guangxi Hengchen · Liang Yibin
FTFULL TIME Dalian Huayi 3–2 Guangxi Hengchen
FTDalian Huayi 3–2 Guangxi Hengchen · Guangxi Hengchen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guangxi Hengchen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dalian Huayi 32%, draw 28%, Guangxi Hengchen 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dalian Huayi v Guangxi HengchenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dalian Huayi win32%

Draw28%

Guangxi Hengchen win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueDalian Sports Center Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dalian Huayi

Guangxi Hengchen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	+13	47
11	Dalian Huayi	27	−7	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guangxi hengchen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market51%

Us40%

~~Market~~51%

We make Guangxi Hengchen a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dalian Huayi v Guangxi Hengchen~~1.26 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 47~~11 v 3

~~The market · Guangxi Hengchen win~~51% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guangxi Hengchen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Huayi win	32%	24%	+8
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Guangxi Hengchen win	40%	51%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Dalian Huayi or draw	60%	49%	+11
Dalian Huayi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Guangxi Hengchen clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.3 8.8 6.9 3.3 1 7.7 13.0 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.3 3.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Huayi down, Guangxi Hengchen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 League One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dalian Huayi at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Guangxi Hengchen away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Dalian Huayi, 1.42 for Guangxi Hengchen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GUA 3–1 DAL · GUA 0–2 DAL · DAL 1–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

DALIAN HUAYI

DWLLDD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

GUANGXI HENGCHEN

WWWLDD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	+13	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	27	0	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	27	−3	32
10	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
11	Dalian Huayi	27	−7	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
15	Meizhou Kejia	27	−29	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16