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Dalian Huayi v Changchun Yatai

Dalian Huayi

1–1Full time

Changchun Yatai

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Dalian Sports Center Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Dalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai DALIAN HUAYI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dalian Huayi win~~42%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Huayi win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dalian Huayi was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Huayi v Changchun Yatai
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Dalian Huayi 1–0 Changchun Yatai · Liu Yun
21′4′ and it is 1–0: Liu Yun on the scoresheet for Dalian Huayi. 1–0 · 68–19–12
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Dalian Huayi win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
24′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Changchun Yatai · On: Tudi Dilyimit · Off: Liu Ziheng
41′We published Dalian Huayi at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai · Wu Junjie (assist J. Salazar)
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai
46′Changchun Yatai ahead on 44′ through Wu Junjie. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–37–28
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dalian Huayi · On: Cui Ming'an · Off: Y. Wu
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Dalian Huayi win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
66′We said Dalian Huayi at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–52–22
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Tudi Dilyimit · Changchun Yatai
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Dalian Huayi win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Dalian Huayi win 26%)
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Changchun Yatai · On: Chen Xuhuang · Off: Ling Chuanbin
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Changchun Yatai · On: Zhou Dadi · Off: C. Benhaddouche
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dalian Huayi · On: K. Hansen · Off: Liu Yun
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dalian Huayi · On: Wang Wenxuan · Off: Lin Longchang
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Changchun Yatai · On: Du Kaile · Off: JIng Boxi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: Li Qiang
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Zhao Jianan · Dalian Huayi
86′We said Dalian Huayi at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–6
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dalian Huayi · On: Lei Wenjie · Off: Long Tingwei
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dalian Huayi win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Dalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai
FTDalian Huayi 1–1 Changchun Yatai · Dalian Huayi win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dalian Huayi win42%

Draw26%

Changchun Yatai win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Dalian Sports Center Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dalian Huayi

Formation not confirmed

17 Sui Weijie

4 Shiming Liu

5 Lin Longchang

13 Wang Yaopeng

37 Zhao Jianan

14 Long Tingwei

8 Y. Wu

3 Lu Kun

11 C. Bayala

22 Liu Yun

30 N. Mushekwi

Coach · Lin Yang

Substitutes

33 · Ma Kunyue

2 · Wang Wenxuan

6 · Ji Zhengyu

18 · Xu Dongdong

40 · Eysajan Elkut

10 · K. Hansen

39 · Lei Wenjie

27 · Zhang Hongjiang

25 · Y. Yan

26 · Cui Ming'an

21 · You Sihan

9 · P. Yan

Changchun Yatai

Formation not confirmed

23 Wu Yake

14 JIng Boxi

27 C. Reiner

41 Wu Junjie

22 C. Benhaddouche

5 Ling Chuanbin

6 Li Qiang

39 Liu Ziheng

29 Tan Long

9 O. Omoijuanfo

7 J. Salazar

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Dong Yifan

32 · Tian Ziyi

3 · Du Kaile

37 · Zhou Dadi

25 · Chen Xuhuang

4 · Wang Weipu

18 · Lu Pin

16 · Tudi Dilyimit

8 · Wu Zhicheng

38 · Sun Xipeng

35 · Jiang Zilei

44 · Fan Chao

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Huayi

Formation not confirmed

17 Sui Weijie

4 Shiming Liu

5 Lin Longchang

13 Wang Yaopeng

37 Zhao Jianan

14 Long Tingwei

8 Y. Wu

3 Lu Kun

11 C. Bayala

22 Liu Yun

30 N. Mushekwi

Coach · Lin Yang

Substitutes

33 · Ma Kunyue

2 · Wang Wenxuan

6 · Ji Zhengyu

18 · Xu Dongdong

40 · Eysajan Elkut

10 · K. Hansen

39 · Lei Wenjie

27 · Zhang Hongjiang

25 · Y. Yan

26 · Cui Ming'an

21 · You Sihan

9 · P. Yan

Changchun Yatai

Formation not confirmed

23 Wu Yake

14 JIng Boxi

27 C. Reiner

41 Wu Junjie

22 C. Benhaddouche

5 Ling Chuanbin

6 Li Qiang

39 Liu Ziheng

29 Tan Long

9 O. Omoijuanfo

7 J. Salazar

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Dong Yifan

32 · Tian Ziyi

3 · Du Kaile

37 · Zhou Dadi

25 · Chen Xuhuang

4 · Wang Weipu

18 · Lu Pin

16 · Tudi Dilyimit

8 · Wu Zhicheng

38 · Sun Xipeng

35 · Jiang Zilei

44 · Fan Chao

Our number · dalian huayi winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make Dalian Huayi a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dalian huayi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Huayi win	42%	43%	−1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Changchun Yatai win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	51%	+7
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	32%	+5
Dalian Huayi or draw	68%	71%	−3
Dalian Huayi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Changchun Yatai clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 5.9 4.7 2.2 1 7.1 11.7 7.5 3.5 2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.9 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Huayi down, Changchun Yatai across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,536 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dalian Huayi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Changchun Yatai away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Dalian Huayi, 1.40 for Changchun Yatai. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–1 DAL

Form · last six in League One

DALIAN HUAYI

WDDWLL3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

CHANGCHUN YATAI

LWWDLD0–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
7	Hebei Kungfu	25	−2	34
8	Changchun Yatai	25	−3	34
9	Wuxi Wugou	25	+7	33
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	25	−5	30
12	Dalian Huayi	25	−7	29
13	Meizhou Kejia	25	−25	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16