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Changchun Yatai v Meizhou Kejia

Changchun Yatai
4–1Full time
Meizhou Kejia

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Development Area Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02
Changchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia CHANGCHUN YATAI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Changchun Yatai win60%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.244
The market’s Brier score0.241

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Changchun Yatai win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Changchun Yatai 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Changchun Yatai v Meizhou Kejia
  4. 13′12′: Tan Long on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  5. 13′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Changchun Yatai 1–0 Meizhou Kejia · Tan Long
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  8. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Li Qiang · Changchun Yatai
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  10. 31′Changchun Yatai ahead on 31′ through Zhou Dadi. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia · Zhou Dadi
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
  13. 32′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  14. 39′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meizhou Kejia · On: Wang Haoran · Off: Sun Xiaobin
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Changchun Yatai · On: JIng Boxi · Off: Wang Weipu
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Changchun Yatai · On: Tudi Dilyimit · Off: Du Kaile
  20. 70′Li Jiarun scores for Meizhou Kejia on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  21. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Changchun Yatai 2–1 Meizhou Kejia · Li Jiarun
  22. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
  23. 71′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  24. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Meizhou Kejia · On: Yang Chaosheng · Off: Su Jiale
  25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Meizhou Kejia · On: Feng Gang · Off: H. Luo
  26. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
  27. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: Tudi Dilyimit Corrected
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Meizhou Kejia · On: Yang Yihu · Off: Q. Wen Corrected
  29. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Yang Chaosheng · Meizhou Kejia
  30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: Tudi Dilyimit
  31. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Yang Yihu · Meizhou Kejia
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Changchun Yatai · On: C. Benhaddouche · Off: Zhou Dadi
  33. 86′86′: Sun Xipeng on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Changchun Yatai 3–1 Meizhou Kejia · Sun Xipeng (assist Zhou Dadi)
  35. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  36. 87′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 88′Changchun Yatai ahead on 88′ through Fan Chao. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 88′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Changchun Yatai · On: Fan Chao · Off: Jiang Zilei Corrected
  41. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Changchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia · Fan Chao (assist Tan Long)
  42. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Changchun Yatai · On: Fan Chao · Off: Jiang Zilei Corrected
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Meizhou Kejia · On: Li Weijia · Off: Zhang Enqi
  44. FTFULL TIME Changchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia
  45. FTChangchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia · Changchun Yatai win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Changchun Yatai are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Changchun Yatai 60%, draw 21%, Meizhou Kejia 19%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Changchun Yatai v Meizhou KejiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Changchun Yatai win60%
Draw21%
Meizhou Kejia win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueDevelopment Area Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Changchun Yatai

Meizhou Kejia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Changchun Yatai27−332
15Meizhou Kejia27−2916

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · changchun yatai winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
60% The market60%
Us60%
Market60%

We make Changchun Yatai a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Changchun Yatai v Meizhou Kejia2.22 – 1.18
Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 32 v 169 v 15
The market · Changchun Yatai win60% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 08:08
Our probability · Changchun Yatai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Changchun Yatai win60%60%0
Draw21%22%−1
Meizhou Kejia win19%18%+1
Over 2.5 goals65%58%+7
Both teams to score61%54%+7
Over 1.5 goals85%79%+6
Over 3.5 goals44%37%+7
Changchun Yatai or draw81%82%−1
Changchun Yatai clean sheet32%––
Meizhou Kejia clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%
0123450 4.5 3.4 2.4 1 6.9 9.5 5.1 2.0 2 8.2 9.3 5.4 2.2 3 6.0 6.8 4.0 4 3.4 3.8 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Changchun Yatai down, Meizhou Kejia across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsMEI 1–3 CHA · CHA 1–0 MEI · MEI 1–3 CHA · MEI 2–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 Sept

CHANGCHUN YATAI

WDLDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

MEIZHOU KEJIA

LWLDLL1–5 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Guangzhou E-Power27+2960
2Nantong Zhiyun27+1651
3Guangxi Hengchen27+1347
4Shenzhen Juniors27+1146
5Shaanxi Union27+2345
6Yanbian Longding27+1039
7Hebei Kungfu27037
8Wuxi Wugou27+836
9Changchun Yatai27−332
10Ningbo Professional27−431
11Dalian Huayi27−731
12Suzhou Dongwu27−828
13Heilongjiang Lava Spring27−1127
14Nanjing City27−1525
15Meizhou Kejia27−2916
16Dongguan United27−3316

The competition's standings before kick-off.