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Changchun Yatai v Meizhou Kejia
Changchun Yatai
Meizhou KejiaLeague One · SAT 24 OCT · Development Area Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Changchun Yatai win at 60%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Changchun Yatai 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Changchun Yatai v Meizhou Kejia
- 13′12′: Tan Long on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
- 13′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Changchun Yatai 1–0 Meizhou Kejia · Tan Long
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Li Qiang · Changchun Yatai
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 31′Changchun Yatai ahead on 31′ through Zhou Dadi. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia · Zhou Dadi
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
- 32′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 39′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meizhou Kejia · On: Wang Haoran · Off: Sun Xiaobin
- 46′SECOND HALF Changchun Yatai 2–0 Meizhou Kejia
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Changchun Yatai · On: JIng Boxi · Off: Wang Weipu
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Changchun Yatai · On: Tudi Dilyimit · Off: Du Kaile
- 70′Li Jiarun scores for Meizhou Kejia on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Changchun Yatai 2–1 Meizhou Kejia · Li Jiarun
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
- 71′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Meizhou Kejia · On: Yang Chaosheng · Off: Su Jiale
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Meizhou Kejia · On: Feng Gang · Off: H. Luo
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: Tudi Dilyimit Corrected
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Meizhou Kejia · On: Yang Yihu · Off: Q. Wen Corrected
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Yang Chaosheng · Meizhou Kejia
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Changchun Yatai · On: Sun Xipeng · Off: Tudi Dilyimit
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Yang Yihu · Meizhou Kejia
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Changchun Yatai · On: C. Benhaddouche · Off: Zhou Dadi
- 86′86′: Sun Xipeng on the scoresheet for Changchun Yatai, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Changchun Yatai 3–1 Meizhou Kejia · Sun Xipeng (assist Zhou Dadi)
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Changchun Yatai win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 87′We said Changchun Yatai at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′Changchun Yatai ahead on 88′ through Fan Chao. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Changchun Yatai · On: Fan Chao · Off: Jiang Zilei Corrected
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Changchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia · Fan Chao (assist Tan Long)
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Changchun Yatai · On: Fan Chao · Off: Jiang Zilei Corrected
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Meizhou Kejia · On: Li Weijia · Off: Zhang Enqi
- FTFULL TIME Changchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia
- FTChangchun Yatai 4–1 Meizhou Kejia · Changchun Yatai win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Changchun Yatai are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Changchun Yatai 60%, draw 21%, Meizhou Kejia 19%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Changchun Yatai win60%
Meizhou Kejia win19%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30
RoundMatchday 28
VenueDevelopment Area Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Changchun YataiMIN
Meizhou KejiaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Changchun Yatai
Meizhou Kejia
Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One
Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Changchun Yatai a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Changchun Yatai win | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | −1 |
| Meizhou Kejia win | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 79% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| Changchun Yatai or draw | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Changchun Yatai clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Meizhou Kejia clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 Sept
CHANGCHUN YATAI
MEIZHOU KEJIA
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou E-Power | 27 | +29 | 60 |
| 2 | Nantong Zhiyun | 27 | +16 | 51 |
| 3 | Guangxi Hengchen | 27 | +13 | 47 |
| 4 | Shenzhen Juniors | 27 | +11 | 46 |
| 5 | Shaanxi Union | 27 | +23 | 45 |
| 6 | Yanbian Longding | 27 | +10 | 39 |
| 7 | Hebei Kungfu | 27 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Wuxi Wugou | 27 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Changchun Yatai | 27 | −3 | 32 |
| 10 | Ningbo Professional | 27 | −4 | 31 |
| 11 | Dalian Huayi | 27 | −7 | 31 |
| 12 | Suzhou Dongwu | 27 | −8 | 28 |
| 13 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 27 | −11 | 27 |
| 14 | Nanjing City | 27 | −15 | 25 |
| 15 | Meizhou Kejia | 27 | −29 | 16 |
| 16 | Dongguan United | 27 | −33 | 16 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Guangzhou E-Power
Nantong Zhiyun
Guangxi Hengchen
Shenzhen Juniors
Shaanxi Union
Yanbian Longding
Hebei Kungfu
Wuxi Wugou
Ningbo Professional
Dalian Huayi
Suzhou Dongwu
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Nanjing City
Dongguan United