Trasandino v Concón National prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TrasandinoDrawConcón National

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trasandino 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trasandino are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trasandino 42%, draw 23%, Concón National 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Trasandino v Concón NationalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Trasandino win42%

Draw23%

Concón National win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Regional de Los Andes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trasandino

Concón National

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trasandino winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Trasandino a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trasandino v Concón National~~1.59 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~7 v 4

~~The market · Trasandino win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trasandino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trasandino win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Concón National win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	50%	+8
Both teams to score	59%	55%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	73%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	30%	+6
Trasandino or draw	65%	68%	−3
Trasandino clean sheet	24%	–	–
Concón National clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 7.7 5.1 2.5 1 8.3 10.4 7.8 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trasandino down, Concón National across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 918 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trasandino at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Concón National away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Trasandino, 1.44 for Concón National. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CON 1–3 TRA · TRA 1–4 CON · CON 1–1 TRA · CON 0–1 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug

TRASANDINO

WDDWDL3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–5

CONCÓN NATIONAL

LWWLWL1–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Provincial Osorno	12	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	−1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	−4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	−1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
11	Colina	12	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	−7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	−13	6