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Santiago Morning v Real San Joaquín

Santiago Morning

1–2Full time

Real San Joaquín

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Santiago Morning 1–2 Real San Joaquín SANTIAGO MORNING WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santiago Morning win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.918

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santiago Morning win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santiago Morning was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–23
5′Much as we predicted: Santiago Morning was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–23
25′17′ and it is 1–1: Real San Joaquín have scored. 1–1 · 47–31–22
45′Real San Joaquín find the net on 32′. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–27–59
66′We said Santiago Morning at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–23–71
74′We said Santiago Morning at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–78
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
86′We said Santiago Morning at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–6–93
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Santiago Morning win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Santiago Morning
FTFULL TIME Santiago Morning 1–2 Real San Joaquín
FTSantiago Morning 1–2 Real San Joaquín · Santiago Morning win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Santiago Morning win53%

Draw24%

Real San Joaquín win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Municipal de La Pintana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Santiago Morning

Real San Joaquín

29Days since last match8

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Santiago Morning	18	−4	18
13	Real San Joaquín	18	−7	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santiago morning winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Santiago Morning a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santiago morning win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santiago Morning win	53%	49%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−3
Real San Joaquín win	24%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Santiago Morning or draw	76%	76%	+1
Santiago Morning clean sheet	38%	–	–
Real San Joaquín clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 7.1 8.0 3.6 1 12.5 11.0 5.7 2 9.6 9.2 4.5 3 5.3 5.0 2.5 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santiago Morning down, Real San Joaquín across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 915 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santiago Morning at home: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real San Joaquín away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Santiago Morning, 0.98 for Real San Joaquín. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–2 SAN

Form · last six in Segunda División

SANTIAGO MORNING

DWDDDD2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

REAL SAN JOAQUÍN

DDLDLL2–2 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santiago City	19	+4	34
2	Linares Unido	19	+4	32
3	Trasandino	21	+6	31
4	Municipal Salamanca	18	+4	31
5	Concón National	19	+3	30
6	Colchagua	19	+3	29
7	Provincial Osorno	18	+5	28
8	Deportes Rengo	17	+5	25
9	General Velásquez	20	−7	23
10	Lota Schwager	18	0	21
11	Colina	18	0	19
12	Santiago Morning	18	−4	18
13	Real San Joaquín	18	−7	16
14	Provincial Ovalle	18	−16	14