Santiago Morning v Lota Schwager prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santiago MorningDrawLota Schwager

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Santiago Morning 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Santiago Morning just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santiago Morning 37%, draw 27%, Lota Schwager 36%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Santiago Morning v Lota SchwagerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Santiago Morning win37%

Draw27%

Lota Schwager win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Municipal de La Pintana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santiago Morning

Lota Schwager

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santiago morning winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Santiago Morning a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santiago Morning v Lota Schwager~~1.21 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D5 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~13 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santiago Morning win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lota Schwager win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Santiago Morning or draw	64%	–	–
Santiago Morning clean sheet	31%	–	–
Lota Schwager clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 9.0 11.6 6.4 2.5 1 11.8 12.3 7.5 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.5 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santiago Morning down, Lota Schwager across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 923 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santiago Morning at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lota Schwager away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Santiago Morning, 1.17 for Lota Schwager. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LOT 1–1 SAN · LOT 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–1 LOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug

SANTIAGO MORNING

DDDDLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

LOTA SCHWAGER

DDLWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Provincial Osorno	12	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	−1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	−4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	−1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
11	Colina	12	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	−7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	−13	6