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Model 1.1

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Santiago City v Colchagua

Santiago City
2–3Full time
Colchagua

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01
Santiago City 2–3 Colchagua SANTIAGO CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santiago City win40%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.676
The market’s Brier score0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santiago City win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Santiago City was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Santiago City v Colchagua
  4. 3′Much as we predicted: Santiago City was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Santiago City 0–1 Colchagua
  6. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Santiago City 1–1 Colchagua
  7. 22′20′ and it is 1–1: Santiago City have scored. 1–1 · 37–32–31
  8. 24′20′ and it is 1–1: Santiago City have scored. 1–1 · 37–33–30
  9. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Santiago City 2–1 Colchagua
  10. 41′⚽ GOAL · 13' Santiago City 2–1 Colchagua
  11. 41′⚽ GOAL · 20' Santiago City 2–1 Colchagua
  12. 41′⚽ GOAL · 35' Santiago City 2–1 Colchagua
  13. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Santiago City
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  15. 43′A goal for Colchagua on 41′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 32–41–27
  16. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Santiago City win 32%)
  17. 45′⚽ GOAL · 13' Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 20' Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  19. 45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  20. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Santiago City
  21. 45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  22. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Colchagua
  23. 45′HALF-TIME Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  24. 47′SECOND HALF Santiago City 2–2 Colchagua
  25. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Santiago City
  26. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Santiago City
  27. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Colchagua
  28. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Colchagua
  29. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Colchagua
  30. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Santiago City 2–3 Colchagua
  31. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Santiago City
  32. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Colchagua
  33. FTFULL TIME Santiago City 2–3 Colchagua
  34. FTSantiago City 2–3 Colchagua · Santiago City win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Santiago City win40%
Draw26%
Colchagua win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santiago city winPublished 10 Oct 19:30
40% The market41%
Us40%
Market41%

We make Santiago City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 17:57
Our probability · santiago city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Santiago City win40%41%−1
Draw26%28%−2
Colchagua win33%30%+3
Over 2.5 goals44%47%−3
Both teams to score48%52%−5
Over 1.5 goals69%70%−2
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Santiago City or draw67%70%−3
Santiago City clean sheet33%––
Colchagua clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%
0123450 8.7 10.7 5.7 2.2 1 12.0 12.0 7.1 2.8 2 7.3 8.0 4.6 3 3.2 3.5 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Santiago City down, Colchagua across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsCOL 0–1 SAN

Form · last six in Segunda División

SANTIAGO CITY

WDWWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

COLCHAGUA

LDLLLW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Santiago City18+534
2Trasandino20+731
3Municipal Salamanca18+431
4Concón National18+530
5Linares Unido18+329
6Colchagua18+226
7Deportes Rengo17+525
8Provincial Osorno17+325
9General Velásquez20−723
10Lota Schwager18021
11Colina18019
12Santiago Morning18−418
13Real San Joaquín18−716
14Provincial Ovalle18−1614

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.