Provincial Osorno v Linares Unido prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Provincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido PROVINCIAL OSORNO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Provincial Osorno win~~42%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Provincial Osorno win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Provincial Osorno was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Provincial Osorno v Linares Unido
5′Provincial Osorno find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Provincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Provincial Osorno win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
6′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–14
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Linares Unido
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
32′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Linares Unido
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Provincial Osorno
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Provincial Osorno win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Provincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido
46′SECOND HALF Provincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido
47′Provincial Osorno ahead on 4′ through F. Escobar. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
55′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Linares Unido
67′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Provincial Osorno
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Provincial Osorno win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
75′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Provincial Osorno win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Linares Unido
89′We published Provincial Osorno at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Linares Unido
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' Linares Unido
97′A red card for Linares Unido on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Provincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido
FTProvincial Osorno 1–0 Linares Unido · Provincial Osorno win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Provincial Osorno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Provincial Osorno 42%, draw 25%, Linares Unido 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Provincial Osorno v Linares UnidoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Provincial Osorno win42%

Draw25%

Linares Unido win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Provincial Osorno

Linares Unido

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · provincial osorno winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make Provincial Osorno a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Provincial Osorno v Linares Unido~~1.43 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 19~~1 v 6

~~The market · Provincial Osorno win~~44% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Provincial Osorno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Provincial Osorno win	42%	44%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Linares Unido win	34%	31%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Provincial Osorno or draw	66%	69%	−3
Provincial Osorno clean sheet	29%	–	–
Linares Unido clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 9.2 5.4 2.3 1 10.3 11.4 7.5 3.2 2 6.9 8.5 5.3 2.3 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Provincial Osorno down, Linares Unido across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 918 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Provincial Osorno at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Linares Unido away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Provincial Osorno, 1.26 for Linares Unido. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LIN 1–0 PRO · PRO 1–1 LIN · LIN 0–1 PRO · PRO 2–2 LIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug

PROVINCIAL OSORNO

LDLLLW0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

LINARES UNIDO

WDLWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Provincial Osorno	12	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	−1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	−4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	−1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
11	Colina	12	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	−7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	−13	6