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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División › Lota Schwager v Deportes Rengo

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Lota Schwager v Deportes Rengo

Lota Schwager
5–1Full time
Deportes Rengo

Segunda División · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31
Lota Schwager 5–1 Deportes Rengo LOTA SCHWAGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lota Schwager win48%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.405
The market’s Brier score0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lota Schwager win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lota Schwager was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lota Schwager v Deportes Rengo
  4. 6′Lota Schwager find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–10
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Lota Schwager 1–0 Deportes Rengo
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Lota Schwager win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 7′We published Lota Schwager at 48%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–10
  8. 15′A goal for Lota Schwager on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
  9. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Lota Schwager 2–0 Deportes Rengo
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Lota Schwager win: 48% at kick-off, 90% now
  11. 16′We published Lota Schwager at 48%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
  12. 19′A goal for Lota Schwager on 14′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  13. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Lota Schwager
  14. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Deportes Rengo
  15. 39′Lota Schwager score on 39′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lota Schwager 3–0 Deportes Rengo
  17. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Lota Schwager win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
  18. 40′We published Lota Schwager at 48%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  20. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Deportes Rengo
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Lota Schwager 3–0 Deportes Rengo
  22. 47′A red card for Deportes Rengo on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  23. 47′🟥 RED CARD · 45+1' Deportes Rengo
  24. 47′SECOND HALF Lota Schwager 3–0 Deportes Rengo
  25. 59′We published Lota Schwager at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 59′Lota Schwager find the net on 59′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Lota Schwager 4–0 Deportes Rengo
  28. 61′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 64′Lota Schwager ahead on 53′ through L. Quiroga. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lota Schwager · On: L. Povea · Off: J. J. Contreras
  31. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lota Schwager · On: L. Quiroga · Off: G. Navarrete
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Deportes Rengo · On: L. Fierro · Off: D. Lazo
  33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Deportes Rengo · On: D. Franco · Off: D. Salazar
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lota Schwager · On: F. Neira · Off: I. Chandia
  35. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lota Schwager · On: F. Ortiz · Off: S. Torres
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Lota Schwager · On: G. Hernandez · Off: D. Torres Quintana
  37. 85′A goal for Lota Schwager on 84′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lota Schwager 5–0 Deportes Rengo
  40. 89′Deportes Rengo score on 88′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 89′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Lota Schwager 5–1 Deportes Rengo
  43. FTFULL TIME Lota Schwager 5–1 Deportes Rengo
  44. FTLota Schwager 5–1 Deportes Rengo · Lota Schwager win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lota Schwager are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lota Schwager 48%, draw 24%, Deportes Rengo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Lota Schwager v Deportes RengoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Lota Schwager win48%
Draw24%
Deportes Rengo win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lota Schwager

Deportes Rengo

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Lota Schwager12−213
12Deportes Rengo12−711

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lota schwager winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off
48% The market55%
Us48%
Market55%

We make Lota Schwager a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lota Schwager v Deportes Rengo1.58 – 1.13
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 AugW2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 13 v 1110 v 12
The market · Lota Schwager win55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 03:4824 OCT 20:24
Our probability · Lota Schwager win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lota Schwager win48%55%−7
Draw24%24%0
Deportes Rengo win28%20%+8
Over 2.5 goals51%50%+1
Both teams to score53%50%+3
Over 1.5 goals74%72%+2
Over 3.5 goals29%29%0
Lota Schwager or draw72%80%−8
Lota Schwager clean sheet33%––
Deportes Rengo clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.4 8.2 4.3 1 11.1 11.2 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 9.1 5.1 3 4.3 4.8 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lota Schwager down, Deportes Rengo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsDEP 1–0 LOT · DEP 1–1 LOT · LOT 0–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Aug

LOTA SCHWAGER

LDDLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

DEPORTES RENGO

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Provincial Osorno12+1024
2Municipal Salamanca12+622
3Colchagua12+422
4Concón National12+621
5Santiago City12−120
6Linares Unido12+419
7Trasandino12+218
8General Velásquez12−416
9Real San Joaquín12−113
10Lota Schwager12−213
11Colina12+112
12Deportes Rengo12−711
13Santiago Morning12−510
14Provincial Ovalle12−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.