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Linares Unido v Trasandino

Linares Unido

5–4Full time

Trasandino

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Fiscal de Linares

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Linares Unido 5–4 Trasandino LINARES UNIDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Linares Unido win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Linares Unido win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Linares Unido 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–26
2′1′ and it is 0–1: Trasandino have scored. 0–1 · 24–24–52
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Trasandino win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Linares Unido win 24%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Trasandino win 26%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Trasandino win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Linares Unido win 24%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Trasandino win 26%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Trasandino win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Linares Unido win 24%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Trasandino win 26%)
22′A goal for Linares Unido on 18′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–17–8
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Trasandino win 26%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Trasandino win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Linares Unido win 24%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Trasandino win 8%)
23′A goal for Linares Unido on 18′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–17–8
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Trasandino win 8%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Trasandino win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Linares Unido win 24%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Linares Unido win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Trasandino win 8%)
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Linares Unido 2–2 Trasandino
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Linares Unido win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Linares Unido 2–2 Trasandino
46′SECOND HALF Linares Unido 2–2 Trasandino
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Linares Unido
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Linares Unido 2–3 Trasandino
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Linares Unido
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Linares Unido 3–3 Trasandino
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Linares Unido 3–4 Trasandino
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Trasandino
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Trasandino
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Linares Unido 4–4 Trasandino
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Trasandino
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Trasandino
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Linares Unido 5–4 Trasandino
90′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Trasandino
FTLinares Unido 5–4 Trasandino · Linares Unido win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Linares Unido win49%

Draw24%

Trasandino win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

Venue · Estadio Fiscal de Linares

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Linares Unido

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Castillo

3 F. Rojas

4 C. Fernandez

8 J. Molina

11 B. Gomez

13 F. G. Valdivia Tello

14 B. Hernandez

18 D. Vallejos

21 C. Arrue

22 S. Penaloza

24 R. Melendez

Coach · Nikolaos Issaris

Substitutes

25 · B. Gezan

10 · N. Candado

20 · H. Basoalto

29 · H. Toro

30 · A. Hernandez

32 · J. Aros Malgarejo

34 · C. Diaz

Trasandino

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Cabello

28 J. Buss

3 J. Sotomayor

5 M. Torres

14 A. Riquelme

11 B. Araneda

6 M. J. Carrasco Reyes

15 L. Poza

7 T. San Martin

21 F. A. Abarca Antil

10 J. Quinones

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Reyes

25 · A. Cortes

8 · K. Flores Secal

16 · N. I. Letelier Garcia

29 · I. Parada

27 · C. Navarrete

19 · A. Rodriguez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Linares Unido

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Castillo

3 F. Rojas

4 C. Fernandez

8 J. Molina

11 B. Gomez

13 F. G. Valdivia Tello

14 B. Hernandez

18 D. Vallejos

21 C. Arrue

22 S. Penaloza

24 R. Melendez

Coach · Nikolaos Issaris

Substitutes

25 · B. Gezan

10 · N. Candado

20 · H. Basoalto

29 · H. Toro

30 · A. Hernandez

32 · J. Aros Malgarejo

34 · C. Diaz

Trasandino

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Cabello

28 J. Buss

3 J. Sotomayor

5 M. Torres

14 A. Riquelme

11 B. Araneda

6 M. J. Carrasco Reyes

15 L. Poza

7 T. San Martin

21 F. A. Abarca Antil

10 J. Quinones

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Reyes

25 · A. Cortes

8 · K. Flores Secal

16 · N. I. Letelier Garcia

29 · I. Parada

27 · C. Navarrete

19 · A. Rodriguez

Our number · linares unido winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Linares Unido a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · linares unido win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Linares Unido win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Trasandino win	27%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	25%	+3
Linares Unido or draw	73%	70%	+3
Linares Unido clean sheet	34%	–	–
Trasandino clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 8.4 4.2 1 11.7 11.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.1 4.9 3 4.5 4.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Linares Unido down, Trasandino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 912 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Linares Unido at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Trasandino away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Linares Unido, 1.08 for Trasandino. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TRA 1–2 LIN · TRA 0–2 LIN · LIN 3–2 TRA · TRA 1–1 LIN

Form · last six in Segunda División

LINARES UNIDO

WWDLWL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

TRASANDINO

LWDDWD1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santiago City	18	+5	34
2	Trasandino	20	+7	31
3	Municipal Salamanca	18	+4	31
4	Concón National	18	+5	30
5	Linares Unido	18	+3	29
6	Colchagua	18	+2	26
7	Deportes Rengo	17	+5	25
8	Provincial Osorno	17	+3	25
9	General Velásquez	20	−7	23
10	Lota Schwager	18	0	21
11	Colina	18	0	19
12	Santiago Morning	18	−4	18
13	Real San Joaquín	18	−7	16
14	Provincial Ovalle	18	−16	14