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Model 1.1

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General Velásquez v Lota Schwager

General Velásquez
1–2Full time
Lota Schwager

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31
General Velásquez 1–2 Lota Schwager GENERAL VELÁSQUEZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said General Velásquez win37%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.632
The market’s Brier score0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 45 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said General Velásquez win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: General Velásquez 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
  3. 30′24′ and it is 1–0: General Velásquez have scored. 1–0 · 69–22–9
  4. 42′Lota Schwager find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–42–28
  5. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
  6. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was General Velásquez win 29%)
  7. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' General Velásquez win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  9. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
  10. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' General Velásquez win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
  12. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was General Velásquez win 29%)
  13. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
  14. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was General Velásquez win 29%)
  15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' General Velásquez win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
  16. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' General Velásquez win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  17. 45′HALF-TIME General Velásquez 1–1 Lota Schwager
  18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 24' General Velásquez 1–1 Lota Schwager
  19. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Lota Schwager
  20. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 30' General Velásquez
  21. 45′⚽ GOAL · 35' General Velásquez 1–1 Lota Schwager
  22. 46′SECOND HALF General Velásquez 1–1 Lota Schwager
  23. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' General Velásquez
  24. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' General Velásquez 1–2 Lota Schwager
  25. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  26. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  27. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  28. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  29. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  30. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  31. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  32. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  33. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  34. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  35. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  36. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  37. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Lota Schwager
  38. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  39. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  40. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  41. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  42. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  43. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  44. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  45. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  46. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  47. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  48. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was General Velásquez win 28%)
  49. FTFULL TIME General Velásquez 1–2 Lota Schwager
  50. FTGeneral Velásquez 1–2 Lota Schwager · General Velásquez win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

General Velásquez win37%
Draw28%
Lota Schwager win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

General Velásquez

Lota Schwager

7Days since last match8
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
9General Velásquez20−723
10Lota Schwager18021

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · general velásquez winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
37% The market35%
Us37%
Market35%

We make General Velásquez a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:1811 OCT 17:26
Our probability · general velásquez win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
General Velásquez win37%35%+2
Draw28%29%−1
Lota Schwager win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals38%44%−6
Both teams to score44%50%−7
Over 1.5 goals64%68%−4
Over 3.5 goals18%24%−6
General Velásquez or draw65%64%+1
General Velásquez clean sheet34%––
Lota Schwager clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%
0123450 10.6 12.6 6.5 2.4 1 12.9 12.6 7.1 2.6 2 6.9 7.3 4.0 3 2.6 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+General Velásquez down, Lota Schwager across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsLOT 3–1 GEN · GEN 2–1 LOT · LOT 1–0 GEN

Form · last six in Segunda División

GENERAL VELÁSQUEZ

LWDDDL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

LOTA SCHWAGER

WLDDLW3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Santiago City19+434
2Linares Unido19+432
3Trasandino21+631
4Municipal Salamanca18+431
5Concón National19+330
6Colchagua19+329
7Provincial Osorno18+528
8Deportes Rengo17+525
9General Velásquez20−723
10Lota Schwager18021
11Colina18019
12Santiago Morning18−418
13Real San Joaquín18−716
14Provincial Ovalle18−1614

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.