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Deportes Rengo v Colina

Deportes Rengo

2–1Full time

Colina

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Deportes Rengo 2–1 Colina DEPORTES RENGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Rengo win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Rengo win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Deportes Rengo 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
45′Little has changed for our model: Deportes Rengo 41% before kick-off, 32% now. 0–0 · 32–40–28
63′Deportes Rengo find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
71′Deportes Rengo find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Colina
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
83′A goal for Deportes Rengo on 78′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Deportes Rengo
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Deportes Rengo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Colina
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Deportes Rengo 2–1 Colina
FTFULL TIME Deportes Rengo 2–1 Colina
FTDeportes Rengo 2–1 Colina · Deportes Rengo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportes Rengo win41%

Draw25%

Colina win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportes Rengo

Colina

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Deportes Rengo	17	+5	25
11	Colina	18	0	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes rengo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Deportes Rengo a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes rengo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Rengo win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Colina win	34%	35%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−3
Deportes Rengo or draw	66%	65%	+1
Deportes Rengo clean sheet	30%	–	–
Colina clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 9.8 5.6 2.4 1 10.8 11.6 7.4 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.1 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Rengo down, Colina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 915 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Rengo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Colina away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Deportes Rengo, 1.23 for Colina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–1 DEP

Form · last six in Segunda División

DEPORTES RENGO

WWDWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 5–1

COLINA

LLDLWW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santiago City	19	+4	34
2	Linares Unido	19	+4	32
3	Trasandino	21	+6	31
4	Municipal Salamanca	18	+4	31
5	Concón National	19	+3	30
6	Colchagua	19	+3	29
7	Provincial Osorno	18	+5	28
8	Deportes Rengo	17	+5	25
9	General Velásquez	20	−7	23
10	Lota Schwager	18	0	21
11	Colina	18	0	19
12	Santiago Morning	18	−4	18
13	Real San Joaquín	18	−7	16
14	Provincial Ovalle	18	−16	14