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Concón National v Provincial Osorno

Concón National

1–3Full time

Provincial Osorno

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Concón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno CONCÓN NATIONAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Concón National win~~45%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Concón National win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Concón National v Provincial Osorno
2′Little has changed for our model: Concón National 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Concón National 0–1 Provincial Osorno
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Concón National 1–1 Provincial Osorno
24′PENALTY MISSED · 24' Provincial Osorno
45′HALF-TIME Concón National 1–1 Provincial Osorno
46′SECOND HALF Concón National 1–1 Provincial Osorno
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Provincial Osorno
73′⚽ GOAL · 7' Concón National 1–1 Provincial Osorno
73′⚽ GOAL · 18' Concón National 1–1 Provincial Osorno · R. Gattas
73′PENALTY MISSED · 24' Provincial Osorno
73′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Provincial Osorno
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Concón National 1–2 Provincial Osorno
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Concón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno · R. Gattas
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Concón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Provincial Osorno
FTFULL TIME Concón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno
FTConcón National 1–3 Provincial Osorno · Concón National win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Concón National win45%

Draw24%

Provincial Osorno win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Concón National

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Fuentes

3 M. Velasquez

23 C. Vega

17 K. Araya

21 A. Cerda

25 A. Ugarte

10 F. Ragusa

22 R. Gattas

16 F. Cubillos

4 B. Fuentes

9 G. Rojas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Pizarro

36 · B. Navarro

7 · J. Plaza

5 · G. Santelices

8 · B. Alvarez

11 · G. Bustos

– · L. Vargas

Provincial Osorno

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Retamal

3 D. Pino

4 E. Navarrete

6 I. Pacheco

7 F. Escobar

8 J. Gutierrez

9 D. Bielkiewicz

10 D. A. Pezoa M.

23 G. Lauler

27 B. Caceres

28 D. Gonzalez

Coach · Jeremias Vialle

Substitutes

18 · D. Lara

16 · D. Vergara

20 · G. Castro

22 · M. Cortez

25 · L. Oyarzo

29 · L. Meneses

31 · M. Clerveaux

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Concón National

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Fuentes

3 M. Velasquez

23 C. Vega

17 K. Araya

21 A. Cerda

25 A. Ugarte

10 F. Ragusa

22 R. Gattas

16 F. Cubillos

4 B. Fuentes

9 G. Rojas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Pizarro

36 · B. Navarro

7 · J. Plaza

5 · G. Santelices

8 · B. Alvarez

11 · G. Bustos

– · L. Vargas

Provincial Osorno

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Retamal

3 D. Pino

4 E. Navarrete

6 I. Pacheco

7 F. Escobar

8 J. Gutierrez

9 D. Bielkiewicz

10 D. A. Pezoa M.

23 G. Lauler

27 B. Caceres

28 D. Gonzalez

Coach · Jeremias Vialle

Substitutes

18 · D. Lara

16 · D. Vergara

20 · G. Castro

22 · M. Cortez

25 · L. Oyarzo

29 · L. Meneses

31 · M. Clerveaux

Our number · concón national winPublished 10 Oct 20:48

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Concón National a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · concón national win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Concón National win	45%	41%	+3
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Provincial Osorno win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	70%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	25%	+4
Concón National or draw	69%	70%	−1
Concón National clean sheet	30%	–	–
Provincial Osorno clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 8.6 4.9 2.0 1 10.5 11.2 7.1 2.9 2 7.4 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Concón National down, Provincial Osorno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 912 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Concón National at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Provincial Osorno away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Concón National, 1.22 for Provincial Osorno. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PRO 1–0 CON · CON 2–2 PRO · PRO 1–3 CON · CON 3–3 PRO

Form · last six in Segunda División

CONCÓN NATIONAL

LLWWLW0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

PROVINCIAL OSORNO

WLDLLL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Santiago City	18	+5	34
2	Trasandino	20	+7	31
3	Municipal Salamanca	18	+4	31
4	Concón National	18	+5	30
5	Linares Unido	18	+3	29
6	Colchagua	18	+2	26
7	Deportes Rengo	17	+5	25
8	Provincial Osorno	17	+3	25
9	General Velásquez	20	−7	23
10	Lota Schwager	18	0	21
11	Colina	18	0	19
12	Santiago Morning	18	−4	18
13	Real San Joaquín	18	−7	16
14	Provincial Ovalle	18	−16	14