Concón National v Municipal Salamanca prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Concón NationalDrawMunicipal Salamanca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Concón National 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Concón National are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Concón National 40%, draw 27%, Municipal Salamanca 33%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Concón National v Municipal SalamancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Concón National win40%

Draw27%

Municipal Salamanca win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Concón National

Municipal Salamanca

7Days since last match27

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

Last match: 4 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · concón national winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Concón National a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Concón National v Municipal Salamanca~~1.21 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 22~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Concón National win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Municipal Salamanca win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Concón National or draw	67%	–	–
Concón National clean sheet	34%	–	–
Municipal Salamanca clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 9.8 11.6 5.9 2.2 1 12.8 12.3 7.0 2.6 2 7.4 7.8 4.2 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Concón National down, Municipal Salamanca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 923 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Concón National at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Municipal Salamanca away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Concón National, 1.08 for Municipal Salamanca. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MUN 0–2 CON · MUN 1–0 CON · CON 0–1 MUN · CON 0–2 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 22 Aug

CONCÓN NATIONAL

WWLWLL2–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

MUNICIPAL SALAMANCA

LWWLLW0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Provincial Osorno	12	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	−1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	−4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	−1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
11	Colina	12	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	−7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	−13	6