Colina v Santiago Morning prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31

Colina 1–1 Santiago Morning COLINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colina win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.800

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colina win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Colina 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
2′KICK-OFF Colina v Santiago Morning
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Colina
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Santiago Morning
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Colina win 36%)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Santiago Morning
41′Santiago Morning score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Colina 0–1 Santiago Morning
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Colina win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Santiago Morning win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
43′We said Colina at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′HALF-TIME Colina 0–1 Santiago Morning
46′SECOND HALF Colina 0–1 Santiago Morning
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Colina
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Santiago Morning
62′We said Colina at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Colina win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Santiago Morning
82′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Santiago Morning · On: L. Valenzuela · Off: G. Escobar
82′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Santiago Morning · On: A. Rojas · Off: K. Rojas
94′Colina find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Colina · On: F. Alvarez · Off: L. Bejar
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Colina 1–1 Santiago Morning
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Santiago Morning win 97%)
FTFULL TIME Colina 1–1 Santiago Morning
FTColina 1–1 Santiago Morning · Colina win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colina 41%, draw 27%, Santiago Morning 32%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Colina v Santiago MorningBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Colina win41%

Draw27%

Santiago Morning win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colina

Santiago Morning

13Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Colina	12	+1	12
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Colina a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colina v Santiago Morning~~1.22 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 17 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~11 v 13

~~The market · Colina win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colina win	41%	40%	+1
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Santiago Morning win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	20%	0
Colina or draw	68%	69%	−1
Colina clean sheet	35%	–	–
Santiago Morning clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 11.4 5.7 2.1 1 13.2 12.3 6.8 2.4 2 7.7 7.8 4.1 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colina down, Santiago Morning across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 918 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colina at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Santiago Morning away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Colina, 1.05 for Santiago Morning. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 COL · COL 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 17 Aug

COLINA

LDLWWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2

SANTIAGO MORNING

WDDDDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Provincial Osorno	12	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	−1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	−4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	−1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	−2	13
11	Colina	12	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	−7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	−5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	−13	6