Union San Felipe v Union Espanola prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union San FelipeDrawUnion Espanola

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Union Espanola 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Union Espanola just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Union San Felipe 33%, draw 30%, Union Espanola 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Union San Felipe v Union EspanolaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Union San Felipe win33%

Draw30%

Union Espanola win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueEstadio Municipal de San Felipe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union San Felipe

Union Espanola

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union espanola winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Union Espanola a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union San Felipe v Union Espanola~~1.13 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 8 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 39~~15 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union San Felipe win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Union Espanola win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Union San Felipe or draw	63%	–	–
Union San Felipe clean sheet	30%	–	–
Union Espanola clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.6 10.8 7.0 2.8 1 10.1 14.0 7.9 3.2 2 6.2 7.4 4.4 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union San Felipe down, Union Espanola across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union San Felipe at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Union Espanola away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Union San Felipe, 1.20 for Union Espanola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ESP 2–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 8 Sept

UNION SAN FELIPE

LLLLDL1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–3

UNION ESPANOLA

LDLLWL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21