Union San Felipe v Deportes Temuco prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Union San Felipe 2–2 Deportes Temuco DEPORTES TEMUCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Temuco win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.752

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Temuco win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportes Temuco 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 33–29–37
1′KICK-OFF Union San Felipe v Deportes Temuco
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Deportes Temuco
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Deportes Temuco win 33%)
35′A goal for Union San Felipe on 35′. 0–0 · 29–38–33
35′We said Deportes Temuco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 67–22–10
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–10
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Union San Felipe 1–0 Deportes Temuco
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Deportes Temuco win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Union San Felipe win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 22%)
39′We said Deportes Temuco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportes Temuco win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Union San Felipe 2–0 Deportes Temuco
45′SECOND HALF Union San Felipe 2–0 Deportes Temuco
47′Union San Felipe find the net on 45′. 1–0 · 70–22–8
49′We said Deportes Temuco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Union San Felipe 2–0 Deportes Temuco
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Union San Felipe · On: F. Lobos · Off: B. Riveros
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Temuco · On: B. Valdivia · Off: N. Astete Corrected
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Temuco · On: B. Valdivia · Off: F. Ortega
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Temuco · On: D. Sanchez · Off: L. Acevedo
63′A goal for Deportes Temuco on 63′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–19–4
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Union San Felipe 2–1 Deportes Temuco
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 77–19–4
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Union San Felipe
66′We said Deportes Temuco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 20–59–22
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Union San Felipe 2–2 Deportes Temuco
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Deportes Temuco win: 38% at kick-off, 22% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Union San Felipe win 20%)
67′Deportes Temuco score on 66′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 19–60–21
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–61–20
70′We said Deportes Temuco at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–63–19
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Deportes Temuco win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Union San Felipe
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Deportes Temuco
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Deportes Temuco win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Deportes Temuco
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union San Felipe · On: N. Palmieri · Off: G. A. Jara Gonzalez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union San Felipe · On: P. Munoz · Off: A. Fontana
87′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union San Felipe · On: B. Guajardo Barrera · Off: C. Suarez
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Deportes Temuco
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Deportes Temuco · On: F. Reynero · Off: C. Rocha
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Union San Felipe · On: V. Sanchez · Off: B. Aravena
FTFULL TIME Union San Felipe 2–2 Deportes Temuco
FTUnion San Felipe 2–2 Deportes Temuco · Deportes Temuco win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Temuco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union San Felipe 33%, draw 29%, Deportes Temuco 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Union San Felipe v Deportes TemucoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union San Felipe win33%

Draw29%

Deportes Temuco win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Municipal de San Felipe

Line-ups

Union San Felipe

Deportes Temuco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union San Felipe

Deportes Temuco

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
15	Union San Felipe	27	−32	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union San Felipe

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Canete

4 M. Ramirez

34 C. Suarez

2 V. Perales

16 D. Fuentes

9 B. Aravena

6 A. Leon

10 G. A. Jara Gonzalez

33 B. Gonzalez

14 B. Riveros

20 A. Fontana

Coach · Luis Landeros

Substitutes

1 · A. Fernandez

3 · B. Guajardo Barrera

8 · N. Palmieri

18 · P. Munoz

25 · V. Sanchez

28 · I. Jara

32 · F. Lobos

Deportes Temuco

Formation not confirmed

13 Y. Urra

23 R. Gonzalez

35 B. Torrealba

28 L. Casanova

17 F. Ortega

30 N. Astete

6 P. Contreras

18 D. Buonanotte

8 B. Troncoso

12 C. Rocha

9 L. Acevedo

Coach · Emiliano Astorga

Substitutes

1 · J. Garrido

3 · M. Sanhueza

7 · M. Torrealba

15 · B. Valdivia

11 · F. Reynero

16 · N. A. Rivera Faundez

19 · D. Sanchez

Our number · deportes temuco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Deportes Temuco a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union San Felipe v Deportes Temuco~~1.15 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 35~~15 v 10

~~The market · Deportes Temuco win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Temuco win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union San Felipe win	33%	32%	+1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Deportes Temuco win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Union San Felipe or draw	62%	61%	+1
Union San Felipe clean sheet	29%	–	–
Deportes Temuco clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.1 10.6 7.0 2.9 1 9.8 13.8 8.0 3.3 2 6.1 7.4 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union San Felipe down, Deportes Temuco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Primera B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union San Felipe at home: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Temuco away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Union San Felipe, 1.24 for Deportes Temuco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 5–0 UNI · UNI 1–0 DEP · DEP 2–1 UNI · DEP 4–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug

UNION SAN FELIPE

DDLLLL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4

DEPORTES TEMUCO

WLWDLW3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	28	+4	46
5	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	27	−3	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	Deportes Iquique	27	+6	34
12	D. Puerto Montt	27	−9	34
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	27	−32	22
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21