Union Espanola v Deportes Copiapo prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 01:30

Union Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo UNION ESPANOLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Espanola win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.570

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Espanola win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Espanola was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Union Espanola v Deportes Copiapo
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Union Espanola
23′Union Espanola score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Union Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Union Espanola win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
24′21′: M. Wassenne on the scoresheet for Union Espanola, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
25′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Deportes Copiapo
29′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
45′HALF-TIME Union Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo
45′SECOND HALF Union Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Copiapo · On: I. Fuenzalida · Off: C. Ross
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Copiapo · On: N. Kimura · Off: C. Zamorano
53′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
59′A red card for Union Espanola on 58′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 77–19–4
59′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Union Espanola
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Union Espanola win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Union Espanola · On: G. Norambuena · Off: F. Ratotti
66′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Deportes Copiapo
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Union Espanola
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportes Copiapo · On: J. Ortiz · Off: M. Rojas
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportes Copiapo · On: L. Palacios · Off: M. Filla
74′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Union Espanola win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Union Espanola · On: R. Cordero · Off: M. Celis
81′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Union Espanola · On: I. Nunez · Off: A. Araos
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Union Espanola · On: C. A. Chadwick Bosco · Off: P. Aranguiz
87′We published Union Espanola at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Union Espanola at 38% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Deportes Copiapo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Deportes Copiapo
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Union Espanola win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Union Espanola
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Deportes Copiapo
FTFULL TIME Union Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo
FTUnion Espanola 1–0 Deportes Copiapo · Union Espanola win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Espanola are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Espanola 38%, draw 29%, Deportes Copiapo 33%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Union Espanola v Deportes CopiapoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Union Espanola win38%

Draw29%

Deportes Copiapo win33%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Line-ups

Union Espanola

Deportes Copiapo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Espanola

Deportes Copiapo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
10	Union Espanola	27	−3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union Espanola

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Fierro

16 M. Ormeno

18 J. Aja

3 R. Alarcon

32 L. Molina

4 M. Celis

17 F. Massri

20 M. Wassenne

19 A. Araos

10 P. Aranguiz

11 F. Ratotti

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · E. Uribe

9 · A. Vilches Araneda

14 · I. Nunez

21 · S. Pereira

24 · G. Norambuena

30 · R. Cordero

38 · C. A. Chadwick Bosco

Deportes Copiapo

Formation not confirmed

22 N. Temperini

20 M. Filla

4 A. Ortiz

5 F. Torres

15 J. Santander

6 C. Zamorano

21 E. Fernandez

10 I. Ledezma

7 C. Ross

27 M. Lopez

23 M. Rojas

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Leyton

3 · N. Suarez

9 · L. Palacios

11 · J. Ortiz

13 · D. Opazo

17 · N. Kimura

31 · I. Fuenzalida

Our number · union espanola winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Union Espanola a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Espanola v Deportes Copiapo~~1.30 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 40~~10 v 8

~~The market · Union Espanola win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Espanola win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Espanola win	38%	43%	−5
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Deportes Copiapo win	33%	31%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−11
Union Espanola or draw	67%	69%	−2
Union Espanola clean sheet	31%	–	–
Deportes Copiapo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.2 9.0 5.9 2.3 1 9.9 13.6 7.6 3.0 2 7.0 8.3 4.9 3 3.1 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Espanola down, Deportes Copiapo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Primera B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Espanola at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Copiapo away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Union Espanola, 1.19 for Deportes Copiapo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–1 UNI · DEP 2–3 UNI · UNI 5–3 DEP · DEP 4–3 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug

UNION ESPANOLA

LDLDLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

DEPORTES COPIAPO

LLDWWW0–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	28	+4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	−3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	+6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21