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Santiago Wanderers v Rangers de Talca

Santiago Wanderers
4–1Full time
Rangers de Talca

Primera B · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 00:30
Santiago Wanderers 4–1 Rangers de Talca SANTIAGO WANDERERS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santiago Wanderers win53%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.337
The market’s Brier score0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santiago Wanderers win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Santiago Wanderers 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Santiago Wanderers v Rangers de Talca
  4. 27′A goal for Santiago Wanderers on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  5. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Rangers de Talca
  6. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Santiago Wanderers win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 28′We said Santiago Wanderers at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–6
  9. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Santiago Wanderers
  10. 36′Santiago Wanderers score on 36′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  11. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Santiago Wanderers 2–0 Rangers de Talca
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Santiago Wanderers win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
  13. 37′We said Santiago Wanderers at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Santiago Wanderers 2–0 Rangers de Talca
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Santiago Wanderers 2–0 Rangers de Talca
  16. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Villarroel · Off: J. Silva
  17. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Santiago Wanderers
  18. 57′Rangers de Talca find the net on 57′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  19. 57′We said Santiago Wanderers at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  20. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Santiago Wanderers 2–1 Rangers de Talca
  21. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Santiago Wanderers win: 53% at kick-off, 82% now
  22. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  23. 59′A goal for Santiago Wanderers on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  24. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Santiago Wanderers 3–1 Rangers de Talca
  25. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Santiago Wanderers win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
  26. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Rangers de Talca · On: P. Mora · Off: D. Gonzalez
  28. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Rangers de Talca
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Santiago Wanderers · On: J. Luna · Off: L. Navarro
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Santiago Wanderers · On: M. Villarroel · Off: C. Ponce
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Santiago Wanderers · On: D. San Martin · Off: V. Vera
  32. 79′Santiago Wanderers score on 79′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rangers de Talca · On: J. E. Mendez Gonzalez · Off: A. Rodriguez
  34. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Santiago Wanderers 4–1 Rangers de Talca
  35. 80′We said Santiago Wanderers at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 81′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rangers de Talca · On: S. Acuna · Off: K. Vasquez
  38. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rangers de Talca · On: D. Plaza · Off: A. Marquez
  39. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rangers de Talca · On: C. Munoz · Off: J. Arias
  40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Silva · Off: I. Flores
  41. 94′Santiago Wanderers find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Santiago Wanderers 5–1 Rangers de Talca
  43. 95′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' C. Silva · Santiago Wanderers
  45. FTFULL TIME Santiago Wanderers 4–1 Rangers de Talca
  46. FTSantiago Wanderers 4–1 Rangers de Talca · Santiago Wanderers win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santiago Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santiago Wanderers 53%, draw 26%, Rangers de Talca 21%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Santiago Wanderers v Rangers de TalcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Santiago Wanderers win53%
Draw26%
Rangers de Talca win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 28

Line-ups

Santiago Wanderers

Rangers de Talca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santiago Wanderers

Rangers de Talca

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Santiago Wanderers27+1244
16Rangers de Talca27−1521

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Santiago Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Miranda

7 A. Herrera

31 C. Valenzuela

18 S. Felipe

16 P. Navarro

8 J. Silva

5 L. Navarro

14 C. Ponce

27 V. Vera

23 I. Flores

32 V. Vargas

Coach · Francisco Palladino

Substitutes

29 · C. Silva

36 · B. Martinez

10 · J. Luna

15 · M. Villarroel

19 · C. Villarroel

37 · D. San Martin

38 · D. Portilla

Rangers de Talca

Formation not confirmed

25 F. Cerda

3 K. Vasquez

27 C. Servetti

16 L. Rigazzi

24 T. Gomez

18 A. Rodriguez

8 A. Marquez

7 I. Ibanez

19 D. Gonzalez

39 I. S. Mesias Gonzalez

9 J. Arias

Coach · Jaime Vera

Substitutes

17 · C. Campestrini

14 · S. Acuna

21 · P. Mora

22 · D. Plaza

23 · J. E. Mendez Gonzalez

11 · M. Vicuna

31 · C. Munoz

Our number · santiago wanderers winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off
53% The market41%
Us53%
Market41%

We make Santiago Wanderers a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Santiago Wanderers v Rangers de Talca1.66 – 0.97
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 AugW2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 44 v 215 v 16
The market · Santiago Wanderers win41% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 21:36
Our probability · Santiago Wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Santiago Wanderers win53%41%+12
Draw26%28%−2
Rangers de Talca win21%31%−10
Over 2.5 goals49%47%+2
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals74%72%+2
Over 3.5 goals27%27%0
Santiago Wanderers or draw79%69%+10
Santiago Wanderers clean sheet38%––
Rangers de Talca clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 8.0 6.3 3.4 1 11.2 12.3 5.6 2 9.9 9.5 4.6 3 5.5 5.3 2.6 4 2.3 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Santiago Wanderers down, Rangers de Talca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored3 of 9
Last meetingsRAN 0–2 SAN · SAN 0–0 RAN · RAN 3–3 SAN · SAN 4–0 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug

SANTIAGO WANDERERS

WWLLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

RANGERS DE TALCA

WWWLLW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1San Luis27+1350
2Cobreloa27+1648
3Magallanes27+546
4Antofagasta27+2144
5Santiago Wanderers27+1244
6Recoleta27+341
7Deportes Copiapo27+240
8San Marcos de Arica27+639
9Union Espanola27−336
10Deportes Temuco27+535
11Deportes Iquique27+634
12D. Puerto Montt27−934
13Curico Unido27−1630
14Deportes Santa Cruz27−1422
15Union San Felipe27−3222
16Rangers de Talca27−1521

The competition's standings before kick-off.