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Santiago Wanderers v Curico Unido

Santiago Wanderers

1–2Full time

Curico Unido

Primera B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Santiago Wanderers 1–2 Curico Unido SANTIAGO WANDERERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santiago Wanderers win~~55%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.023

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santiago Wanderers win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santiago Wanderers was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
1′KICK-OFF Santiago Wanderers v Curico Unido
6′Much as we predicted: Santiago Wanderers was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Curico Unido
22′Santiago Wanderers ahead on 18′ through P. Navarro. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–5
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
27′Santiago Wanderers ahead on 18′ through P. Navarro. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 56% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
36′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Silva · Off: M. Camarda
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Santiago Wanderers win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Curico Unido
45′⚽ GOAL · 18' Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Curico Unido · P. Navarro
45′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Silva · Off: M. Camarda
46′SECOND HALF Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Curico Unido
50′⚽ GOAL · 18' Santiago Wanderers 1–0 Curico Unido · P. Navarro
50′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Silva · Off: M. Camarda
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Santiago Wanderers
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Santiago Wanderers · On: C. Villarroel · Off: D. San Martin
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Curico Unido
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Curico Unido · On: J. Retamales · Off: H. Ibarra
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Curico Unido · On: R. Guzman · Off: W. Saez
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Santiago Wanderers 1–1 Curico Unido
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Santiago Wanderers · On: V. Vargas · Off: I. Flores
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Santiago Wanderers · On: M. Villarroel · Off: C. Valenzuela
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Santiago Wanderers · On: A. Dubo · Off: J. Silva
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Curico Unido
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Santiago Wanderers 1–2 Curico Unido
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Curico Unido
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Curico Unido · On: D. Munoz · Off: L. Benegas
FTFULL TIME Santiago Wanderers 1–2 Curico Unido
FTSantiago Wanderers 1–2 Curico Unido · Santiago Wanderers win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Santiago Wanderers win55%

Draw26%

Curico Unido win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Santiago Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

36 B. Martinez

7 A. Herrera

31 C. Valenzuela

18 S. Felipe

16 P. Navarro

8 J. Silva

5 L. Navarro

23 I. Flores

37 D. San Martin

10 J. Luna

9 M. Camarda

Coach · Francisco Palladino

Substitutes

1 · E. Miranda

24 · A. Dubo

15 · M. Villarroel

19 · C. Villarroel

20 · L. Avendano

29 · C. Silva

32 · V. Vargas

Curico Unido

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Vergara

14 C. Medina

4 R. Colombo

3 G. Sarria

19 R. de La Fuente

15 H. Sanhueza

21 E. Ormeno

28 H. Ibarra

7 N. Fernandez

9 L. Benegas

24 W. Saez

Coach · Damian Munoz

Substitutes

22 · D. Tello

2 · D. Munoz

8 · J. Romo

10 · J. Retamales

13 · C. Bustamante

20 · A. E. Ramirez Cuevas

37 · R. Guzman

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Santiago Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

36 B. Martinez

7 A. Herrera

31 C. Valenzuela

18 S. Felipe

16 P. Navarro

8 J. Silva

5 L. Navarro

23 I. Flores

37 D. San Martin

10 J. Luna

9 M. Camarda

Coach · Francisco Palladino

Substitutes

1 · E. Miranda

24 · A. Dubo

15 · M. Villarroel

19 · C. Villarroel

20 · L. Avendano

29 · C. Silva

32 · V. Vargas

Curico Unido

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Vergara

14 C. Medina

4 R. Colombo

3 G. Sarria

19 R. de La Fuente

15 H. Sanhueza

21 E. Ormeno

28 H. Ibarra

7 N. Fernandez

9 L. Benegas

24 W. Saez

Coach · Damian Munoz

Substitutes

22 · D. Tello

2 · D. Munoz

8 · J. Romo

10 · J. Retamales

13 · C. Bustamante

20 · A. E. Ramirez Cuevas

37 · R. Guzman

Our number · santiago wanderers winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

55% The market46%

Us55%

~~Market~~46%

We make Santiago Wanderers a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santiago wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santiago Wanderers win	55%	46%	+9
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Curico Unido win	19%	26%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−3
Santiago Wanderers or draw	81%	74%	+7
Santiago Wanderers clean sheet	41%	–	–
Curico Unido clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 6.1 3.1 1 12.1 12.2 5.1 2 10.8 9.5 4.2 3 6.1 5.3 2.4 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santiago Wanderers down, Curico Unido across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Primera B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santiago Wanderers at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Curico Unido away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Santiago Wanderers, 0.89 for Curico Unido. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CUR 0–3 SAN · CUR 1–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 CUR · CUR 2–2 SAN

Form · last six in Primera B

SANTIAGO WANDERERS

WWWLLL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

CURICO UNIDO

WDLWLL2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Santiago Wanderers	26	+13	44
4	Magallanes	26	+4	43
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
6	Recoleta	26	+4	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
11	Deportes Temuco	26	+4	32
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	26	−17	27
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	26	−13	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18