San Marcos de Arica v San Luis prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Marcos de AricaDrawSan Luis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · San Marcos de Arica 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Marcos de Arica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Marcos de Arica 45%, draw 29%, San Luis 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on San Marcos de Arica v San LuisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Marcos de Arica win45%

Draw29%

San Luis win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueEstadio Carlos Dittborn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Marcos de Arica

San Luis

13Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san marcos de arica winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make San Marcos de Arica a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Marcos de Arica v San Luis~~1.38 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 40 v 54~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Marcos de Arica win	45%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
San Luis win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
San Marcos de Arica or draw	74%	–	–
San Marcos de Arica clean sheet	37%	–	–
San Luis clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.2 8.5 4.6 1 12.0 13.5 6.3 2.1 2 8.8 8.7 4.3 3 4.1 4.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Marcos de Arica down, San Luis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Marcos de Arica at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Luis away: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for San Marcos de Arica, 1.00 for San Luis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LUI 1–0 MAR · LUI 1–1 MAR · MAR 2–1 LUI · LUI 1–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 6 Sept

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA

WLWWLD2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

SAN LUIS

WWWWWD2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21