

San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt
San Marcos de Arica
D. Puerto MonttPrimera B · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Carlos Dittborn
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said San Marcos de Arica win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: San Marcos de Arica was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
- 1′KICK-OFF San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 44′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–42–20
- 45′HALF-TIME San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was San Marcos de Arica win 38%)
- 46′SECOND HALF San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
- 53′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–18
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' D. Puerto Montt
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' D. Puerto Montt
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
- 62′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' D. Puerto Montt · On: B. Taiva · Off: L. Vazquez
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' D. Puerto Montt · On: F. Espinoza · Off: D. Diaz
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' San Marcos de Arica · On: B. Sagredo · Off: A. Maidana
- 69′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' San Marcos de Arica · On: C. Guerra · Off: A. Barrios
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
- 75′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' San Marcos de Arica
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' D. Puerto Montt · On: B. Nieto · Off: K. Gonzalez
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' D. Puerto Montt · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: J. Flores
- 81′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–80–7
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' San Marcos de Arica
- 84′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: R. Campos · Off: G. Cubillos
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: D. Pereira · Off: I. Orrego
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: A. Abalos · Off: N. Donadell
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' D. Puerto Montt
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' San Marcos de Arica
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' D. Puerto Montt · On: N. Mancilla · Off: A. Sabella
- 90′Full time, 0–0. We called San Marcos de Arica at 50% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 91′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- FTFULL TIME San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
- FTSan Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt · San Marcos de Arica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
San Marcos de Arica are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: San Marcos de Arica 50%, draw 28%, D. Puerto Montt 22%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
San Marcos de Arica win50%
D. Puerto Montt win22%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 28
VenueEstadio Carlos Dittborn
Match timeline
All events
San Marcos de AricaMIN
D. Puerto MonttEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
San Marcos de Arica
D. Puerto Montt
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
San Marcos de Arica
D. Puerto Montt
Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B
Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
San Marcos de Arica
Formation not confirmed
13 B. Tapia
15 G. Cubillos
5 J. Rivera
34 A. Barboza
27 I. Orrego
16 G. Reyes
8 A. Barrios
19 A. Maidana
26 C. Rencoret
22 N. Donadell
9 C. Melivilu Fuentes
Coach · German Cavalieri
Substitutes
1 · R. Saracho
2 · R. Campos
10 · B. Sagredo
11 · N. Zedan
14 · C. Guerra
20 · A. Abalos
24 · D. Pereira
D. Puerto Montt
Formation not confirmed
13 L. Ureta
34 K. Gonzalez
2 A. Morales
4 M. Riveros
15 K. Egana
6 D. Diaz
23 G. Castillo
16 J. Flores
18 A. Sabella
14 J. Cardenas
9 L. Vazquez
Coach · Emilio Mancilla
Substitutes
29 · G. Collao
19 · B. Taiva
17 · B. Nieto
21 · F. Espinoza
22 · J. Jaime
24 · J. Gonzalez
26 · N. Mancilla
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
San Marcos de Arica
Formation not confirmed
13 B. Tapia
15 G. Cubillos
5 J. Rivera
34 A. Barboza
27 I. Orrego
16 G. Reyes
8 A. Barrios
19 A. Maidana
26 C. Rencoret
22 N. Donadell
9 C. Melivilu Fuentes
Coach · German Cavalieri
Substitutes
1 · R. Saracho
2 · R. Campos
10 · B. Sagredo
11 · N. Zedan
14 · C. Guerra
20 · A. Abalos
24 · D. Pereira
D. Puerto Montt
Formation not confirmed
13 L. Ureta
34 K. Gonzalez
2 A. Morales
4 M. Riveros
15 K. Egana
6 D. Diaz
23 G. Castillo
16 J. Flores
18 A. Sabella
14 J. Cardenas
9 L. Vazquez
Coach · Emilio Mancilla
Substitutes
29 · G. Collao
19 · B. Taiva
17 · B. Nieto
21 · F. Espinoza
22 · J. Jaime
24 · J. Gonzalez
26 · N. Mancilla
We make San Marcos de Arica a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos de Arica win | 50% | 59% | −9 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| D. Puerto Montt win | 22% | 16% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| San Marcos de Arica or draw | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| San Marcos de Arica clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| D. Puerto Montt clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 Aug
SAN MARCOS DE ARICA
D. PUERTO MONTT
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis | 28 | +14 | 53 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 28 | +21 | 51 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 28 | +15 | 47 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 28 | +4 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 27 | +21 | 44 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 28 | −2 | 41 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | +2 | 40 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 27 | +6 | 39 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 27 | −3 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | +5 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 27 | +6 | 34 |
| 12 | D. Puerto Montt | 27 | −9 | 34 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | −16 | 30 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | −14 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 27 | −32 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 28 | −18 | 21 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
San Luis
Cobreloa
Santiago Wanderers
Magallanes
Antofagasta
Recoleta
Deportes Copiapo
Union Espanola
Deportes Temuco
Deportes Iquique
Curico Unido
Deportes Santa Cruz
Union San Felipe
Rangers de Talca