Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Primera B › San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt

Back
Chile flag

San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt

San Marcos de Arica
0–0Full time
D. Puerto Montt

Primera B · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31
San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt SAN MARCOS DE ARICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said San Marcos de Arica win50%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.813
The market’s Brier score0.936

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said San Marcos de Arica win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: San Marcos de Arica was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  5. 44′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–42–20
  6. 45′HALF-TIME San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
  7. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was San Marcos de Arica win 38%)
  8. 46′SECOND HALF San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
  9. 53′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–18
  10. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' D. Puerto Montt
  11. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' D. Puerto Montt
  12. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  13. 62′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  14. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' D. Puerto Montt · On: B. Taiva · Off: L. Vazquez
  15. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' D. Puerto Montt · On: F. Espinoza · Off: D. Diaz
  16. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' San Marcos de Arica · On: B. Sagredo · Off: A. Maidana
  17. 69′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' San Marcos de Arica · On: C. Guerra · Off: A. Barrios
  19. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  20. 75′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  21. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' San Marcos de Arica
  22. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' D. Puerto Montt · On: B. Nieto · Off: K. Gonzalez
  23. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' D. Puerto Montt · On: J. Gonzalez · Off: J. Flores
  24. 81′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–80–7
  25. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' San Marcos de Arica win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  26. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' San Marcos de Arica
  27. 84′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  28. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: R. Campos · Off: G. Cubillos
  29. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: D. Pereira · Off: I. Orrego
  30. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: A. Abalos · Off: N. Donadell
  31. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' D. Puerto Montt
  32. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' San Marcos de Arica
  33. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' D. Puerto Montt · On: N. Mancilla · Off: A. Sabella
  34. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called San Marcos de Arica at 50% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  35. 91′We said San Marcos de Arica at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  36. FTFULL TIME San Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt
  37. FTSan Marcos de Arica 0–0 D. Puerto Montt · San Marcos de Arica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Marcos de Arica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Marcos de Arica 50%, draw 28%, D. Puerto Montt 22%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto MonttBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Marcos de Arica win50%
Draw28%
D. Puerto Montt win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Carlos Dittborn

Line-ups

San Marcos de Arica

D. Puerto Montt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Marcos de Arica

D. Puerto Montt

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8San Marcos de Arica27+639
12D. Puerto Montt27−934

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Marcos de Arica

Formation not confirmed

13 B. Tapia

15 G. Cubillos

5 J. Rivera

34 A. Barboza

27 I. Orrego

16 G. Reyes

8 A. Barrios

19 A. Maidana

26 C. Rencoret

22 N. Donadell

9 C. Melivilu Fuentes

Coach · German Cavalieri

Substitutes

1 · R. Saracho

2 · R. Campos

10 · B. Sagredo

11 · N. Zedan

14 · C. Guerra

20 · A. Abalos

24 · D. Pereira

D. Puerto Montt

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Ureta

34 K. Gonzalez

2 A. Morales

4 M. Riveros

15 K. Egana

6 D. Diaz

23 G. Castillo

16 J. Flores

18 A. Sabella

14 J. Cardenas

9 L. Vazquez

Coach · Emilio Mancilla

Substitutes

29 · G. Collao

19 · B. Taiva

17 · B. Nieto

21 · F. Espinoza

22 · J. Jaime

24 · J. Gonzalez

26 · N. Mancilla

Our number · san marcos de arica winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 16:52 · locked at kick-off
50% The market59%
Us50%
Market59%

We make San Marcos de Arica a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · San Marcos de Arica v D. Puerto Montt1.45 – 0.88
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 AugW3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 39 v 348 v 12
The market · San Marcos de Arica win59% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0018 OCT 18:40
Our probability · San Marcos de Arica win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
San Marcos de Arica win50%59%−9
Draw28%25%+3
D. Puerto Montt win22%16%+6
Over 2.5 goals41%45%−4
Both teams to score45%44%+1
Over 1.5 goals68%69%−1
Over 3.5 goals21%25%−4
San Marcos de Arica or draw78%84%−6
San Marcos de Arica clean sheet42%––
D. Puerto Montt clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%
0123450 10.6 7.8 3.8 1 13.4 13.0 5.4 2 10.2 8.9 3.9 3 5.0 4.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+San Marcos de Arica down, D. Puerto Montt across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsDPU 0–2 SAN · DPU 1–1 SAN · SAN 2–0 DPU · SAN 1–2 DPU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 Aug

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

D. PUERTO MONTT

LWLLLL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1San Luis28+1453
2Cobreloa28+2151
3Santiago Wanderers28+1547
4Magallanes28+446
5Antofagasta27+2144
6Recoleta28−241
7Deportes Copiapo27+240
8San Marcos de Arica27+639
9Union Espanola27−336
10Deportes Temuco27+535
11Deportes Iquique27+634
12D. Puerto Montt27−934
13Curico Unido27−1630
14Deportes Santa Cruz27−1422
15Union San Felipe27−3222
16Rangers de Talca28−1821

The competition's standings before kick-off.