San Luis v Recoleta prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

San Luis 1–1 Recoleta SAN LUIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said San Luis win~~47%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.967

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Luis win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: San Luis 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF San Luis v Recoleta
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' San Luis
10′San Luis are down to ten from 10′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 46–29–25
10′🟥 RED CARD · 10' San Luis
15′SUBSTITUTION · 12' San Luis · On: M. Guerra Rojas · Off: S. Vergara
42′Recoleta find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' San Luis 0–1 Recoleta
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Recoleta win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was San Luis win 39%)
44′We said San Luis at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
45′HALF-TIME San Luis 0–1 Recoleta
45′SECOND HALF San Luis 0–1 Recoleta
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 11–25–63
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Recoleta
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Recoleta
52′We said San Luis at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' San Luis win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
68′We said San Luis at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
68′San Luis have ten men and Recoleta ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–21–75
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Recoleta
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' San Luis
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Recoleta · On: R. Riveros · Off: P. Sanchez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Luis · On: D. Gonzalez · Off: F. Juarez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Recoleta · On: C. Gonzalez · Off: M. Arguinarena
75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Luis · On: G. Madrigal · Off: Y. Pinilla
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Recoleta · On: N. Carvajal · Off: I. Lara
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' San Luis · On: J. Torres · Off: L. Munoz
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' San Luis · On: A. Villegas · Off: D. Catalan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Recoleta · On: F. Flores · Off: G. Estigarribia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Recoleta · On: D. Viveros · Off: J. Espinoza
90′1–1 at the end. Our 47% on San Luis misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' San Luis 1–1 Recoleta
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Recoleta win 98%)
96′A goal for San Luis on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' San Luis
FTFULL TIME San Luis 1–1 Recoleta
FTSan Luis 1–1 Recoleta · San Luis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Luis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Luis 47%, draw 28%, Recoleta 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on San Luis v RecoletaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

San Luis win47%

Draw28%

Recoleta win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Luis

Recoleta

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san luis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make San Luis a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Luis v Recoleta~~1.49 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 41~~1 v 6

~~The market · San Luis win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Luis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Luis win	47%	58%	−11
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Recoleta win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	58%	−12
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	37%	−13
San Luis or draw	75%	81%	−6
San Luis clean sheet	36%	–	–
Recoleta clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.0 7.5 4.2 1 11.4 13.0 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 9.1 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Luis down, Recoleta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Primera B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Luis at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Recoleta away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for San Luis, 1.02 for Recoleta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REC 0–0 SAN · SAN 0–0 REC · REC 3–1 SAN · REC 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept

SAN LUIS

WWWWWW4–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

RECOLETA

WWDWLL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	28	+1	40
9	Union Espanola	28	−2	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21