Home › Football › Primera B › Recoleta v Magallanes

Recoleta v Magallanes

Recoleta

1–2Full time

Magallanes

Primera B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Recoleta 1–2 Magallanes RECOLETA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Recoleta win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.672

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Recoleta win at 39%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Recoleta 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
0′KICK-OFF Recoleta v Magallanes
4′Little has changed for our model: Recoleta 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–33
8′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Magallanes
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Recoleta 0–0 Magallanes
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Recoleta 1–0 Magallanes
25′24′ and it is 1–0: Recoleta have scored. 1–0 · 69–20–10
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Recoleta win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Recoleta win: 39% at kick-off, 40% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 33' Recoleta 1–0 Magallanes
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Recoleta 1–1 Magallanes · P. Sanchez
45′SECOND HALF Recoleta 1–1 Magallanes
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Recoleta win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Recoleta
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Recoleta win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Recoleta 1–1 Magallanes
50′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Recoleta
51′🟨 YELLOW · 47' D. Viveros · Recoleta
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Magallanes
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Recoleta · On: R. Riveros · Off: F. Flores
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Recoleta · On: F. Tomarelli · Off: D. Viveros
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Recoleta · On: M. Arguinarena · Off: C. Gonzalez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Magallanes · On: A. Toledo · Off: R. Farfan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Magallanes · On: F. Peraza · Off: M. Alegre
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Recoleta
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Magallanes
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Magallanes · On: M. Osorio · Off: J. Quiroz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Magallanes · On: G. Guzman · Off: C. Jorquera
77′⚽ GOAL · 79' Recoleta 1–1 Magallanes
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Recoleta 1–2 Magallanes · C. Jorquera
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Recoleta · On: F. Baez · Off: J. Espinoza
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Magallanes
FTFULL TIME Recoleta 1–2 Magallanes
FTRecoleta 1–2 Magallanes · Recoleta win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Recoleta win39%

Draw29%

Magallanes win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Recoleta

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Salazar

11 D. Viveros

5 F. Alarcon

16 B. Viveros

14 I. Lara

6 J. Espinoza

7 B. Provoste

20 C. Gonzalez

21 G. Alvarez

27 F. Flores

19 P. Sanchez

Coach · Esteban Arrue Pardo Francisco

Substitutes

22 · J. Vargas

3 · N. Arismendy

4 · F. Tomarelli

17 · N. Carvajal

10 · M. Arguinarena

15 · F. Baez

33 · R. Riveros

Magallanes

Formation not confirmed

17 J. P. Zozaya

4 M. Vasquez

29 M. Sepulveda

6 J. James

30 H. Salinas Flores

3 A. Walters

21 J. Quiroz

10 C. Jorquera

20 R. Farfan

23 M. Alegre

11 M. Fredes

Coach · Miguel Ponce Torres

Substitutes

1 · J. Munoz

16 · M. Osorio

22 · C. Meneses

24 · F. Yanez

7 · A. Toledo

28 · G. Guzman

9 · F. Peraza

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Recoleta

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Salazar

11 D. Viveros

5 F. Alarcon

16 B. Viveros

14 I. Lara

6 J. Espinoza

7 B. Provoste

20 C. Gonzalez

21 G. Alvarez

27 F. Flores

19 P. Sanchez

Coach · Esteban Arrue Pardo Francisco

Substitutes

22 · J. Vargas

3 · N. Arismendy

4 · F. Tomarelli

17 · N. Carvajal

10 · M. Arguinarena

15 · F. Baez

33 · R. Riveros

Magallanes

Formation not confirmed

17 J. P. Zozaya

4 M. Vasquez

29 M. Sepulveda

6 J. James

30 H. Salinas Flores

3 A. Walters

21 J. Quiroz

10 C. Jorquera

20 R. Farfan

23 M. Alegre

11 M. Fredes

Coach · Miguel Ponce Torres

Substitutes

1 · J. Munoz

16 · M. Osorio

22 · C. Meneses

24 · F. Yanez

7 · A. Toledo

28 · G. Guzman

9 · F. Peraza

Our number · recoleta winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Recoleta a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · recoleta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recoleta win	39%	39%	+1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Magallanes win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−7
Recoleta or draw	68%	67%	+1
Recoleta clean sheet	31%	–	–
Magallanes clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.0 8.6 5.6 2.2 1 9.9 13.5 7.5 3.0 2 7.2 8.4 5.0 3 3.2 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recoleta down, Magallanes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Primera B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recoleta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Magallanes away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Recoleta, 1.18 for Magallanes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAG 3–2 REC · REC 2–0 MAG · MAG 3–0 REC · MAG 1–1 REC

Form · last six in Primera B

RECOLETA

WDWWDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

MAGALLANES

WLDDWW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Santiago Wanderers	26	+13	44
4	Magallanes	26	+4	43
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
6	Recoleta	26	+4	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
11	Deportes Temuco	26	+4	32
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	26	−17	27
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	26	−13	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18