Rangers de Talca v Union San Felipe prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe RANGERS DE TALCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rangers de Talca win~~48%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rangers de Talca win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: Rangers de Talca was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–24
10′Much as we predicted: Rangers de Talca was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
11′Much as we predicted: Rangers de Talca was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
15′A goal for Rangers de Talca on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
17′We published Rangers de Talca at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Rangers de Talca win: 48% at kick-off, 47% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rangers de Talca 2–0 Union San Felipe
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rangers de Talca 3–0 Union San Felipe
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe
45′HALF-TIME Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe
46′SECOND HALF Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Rangers de Talca
52′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Rangers de Talca
53′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Rangers de Talca
70′🟨 YELLOW · 5' A. Mora · Rangers de Talca
70′⚽ GOAL · 14' Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe · A. Marquez
70′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe · A. Marquez
70′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe · I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
70′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe · I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Union San Felipe · On: R. Diaz Orostegui · Off: B. Gonzalez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Union San Felipe · On: M. Ramirez · Off: N. Palmieri
70′🟨 YELLOW · 47' L. Rigazzi · Rangers de Talca
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Union San Felipe · On: O. Henriquez · Off: B. Aravena
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rangers de Talca · On: S. Acuna · Off: J. Arias
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Union San Felipe
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Union San Felipe
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Union San Felipe
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rangers de Talca · On: C. Munoz · Off: I. S. Mesias Gonzalez Corrected
FTFULL TIME Rangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe
FTRangers de Talca 4–0 Union San Felipe · Rangers de Talca win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Rangers de Talca win48%

Draw29%

Union San Felipe win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Fiscal de Talca

Line-ups

Rangers de Talca

Union San Felipe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rangers de Talca

Union San Felipe

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rangers de Talca

Formation not confirmed

25 F. Cerda

13 A. Mora

27 C. Servetti

16 L. Rigazzi

3 K. Vasquez

19 D. Gonzalez

18 A. Rodriguez

8 A. Marquez

7 I. Ibanez

9 J. Arias

39 I. S. Mesias Gonzalez

Coach · Jaime Vera

Substitutes

17 · C. Campestrini

14 · S. Acuna

22 · D. Plaza

23 · J. E. Mendez Gonzalez

24 · T. Gomez

11 · M. Vicuna

31 · C. Munoz

Union San Felipe

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Canete

16 D. Fuentes

3 B. Guajardo Barrera

34 C. Suarez

27 L. Garcia

6 A. Leon

33 B. Gonzalez

10 G. A. Jara Gonzalez

8 N. Palmieri

9 B. Aravena

20 A. Fontana

Coach · Luis Landeros

Substitutes

1 · A. Fernandez

29 · L. Martinez

4 · M. Ramirez

17 · R. Diaz Orostegui

18 · P. Munoz

7 · O. Henriquez

23 · B. Vides

Our number · rangers de talca winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

48% The market56%

Us48%

~~Market~~56%

We make Rangers de Talca a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rangers de talca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rangers de Talca win	48%	56%	−8
Draw	29%	25%	+3
Union San Felipe win	24%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Rangers de Talca or draw	76%	81%	−5
Rangers de Talca clean sheet	40%	–	–
Union San Felipe clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 7.9 4.1 1 12.7 13.4 5.8 2 9.7 8.9 4.1 3 4.6 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rangers de Talca down, Union San Felipe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Primera B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rangers de Talca at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Union San Felipe away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Rangers de Talca, 0.93 for Union San Felipe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~9 of 11

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 RAN · RAN 2–1 UNI · UNI 0–2 RAN · RAN 1–1 UNI

Form · last six in Primera B

RANGERS DE TALCA

WWWWLL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

UNION SAN FELIPE

LDDLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	27	+16	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Magallanes	27	+5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	+12	44
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18