Magallanes v San Luis prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Magallanes 0–1 San Luis MAGALLANES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Magallanes win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Magallanes win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Magallanes was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Magallanes v San Luis
1′🟨 YELLOW · 1' San Luis
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Magallanes
23′A red card for Magallanes on 23′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 44–32–24
23′🟥 RED CARD · 23' Magallanes
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' San Luis
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' San Luis · On: S. Vergara · Off: M. Carreno
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Magallanes win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Magallanes 0–0 San Luis
45′SECOND HALF Magallanes 0–0 San Luis
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' San Luis
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Magallanes win 37%)
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' San Luis · On: G. Madrigal · Off: V. Duran
49′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–42–21
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' San Luis · On: M. Guerra Rojas · Off: L. Munoz
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Magallanes · On: A. Toledo · Off: C. Jorquera
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Magallanes · On: D. N. Fernandez C. · Off: G. Guzman
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Magallanes · On: F. Peraza · Off: M. Alegre
53′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–40–22
63′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Magallanes win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
70′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
75′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Magallanes win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Magallanes · On: V. Cabezas · Off: R. Farfan
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Magallanes
77′🟨 YELLOW · 71' F. Yanez · Magallanes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Luis · On: G. Bustos · Off: F. Juarez
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Luis · On: Y. Pinilla · Off: S. Parada
80′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
84′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Magallanes win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Magallanes · On: B. Liuzzi · Off: F. Yanez
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Magallanes at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
92′We said Magallanes at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
92′A goal for San Luis on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Magallanes 0–1 San Luis
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
97′Magallanes are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–2–98
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Magallanes
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' San Luis
FTFULL TIME Magallanes 0–1 San Luis
FTMagallanes 0–1 San Luis · Magallanes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Magallanes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Magallanes 48%, draw 27%, San Luis 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Magallanes v San LuisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Magallanes win48%

Draw27%

San Luis win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Santiago Bueras

Line-ups

Magallanes

San Luis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Magallanes

San Luis

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Magallanes

Formation not confirmed

17 J. P. Zozaya

4 M. Vasquez

29 M. Sepulveda

6 J. James

24 F. Yanez

28 G. Guzman

16 M. Osorio

10 C. Jorquera

19 R. Farfan

23 M. Alegre

11 M. Fredes

Coach · Miguel Ponce Torres

Substitutes

1 · J. Munoz

22 · C. Meneses

5 · B. Liuzzi

7 · A. Toledo

8 · D. N. Fernandez C.

35 · V. Cabezas

9 · F. Peraza

San Luis

Formation not confirmed

12 F. Abarzua

18 G. Avello

6 L. Munoz

3 I. Meza

4 V. Duran

34 D. Catalan

13 N. Munoz Alister

17 F. Juarez

11 M. Carreno

21 F. Pastenes

10 S. Parada

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Peranic

28 · M. Guerra Rojas

32 · A. Villegas

7 · S. Vergara

22 · G. Bustos

9 · G. Madrigal

31 · Y. Pinilla

Our number · magallanes winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Magallanes a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Magallanes v San Luis~~1.54 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 46 v 50~~4 v 1

~~The market · Magallanes win~~40% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Magallanes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Magallanes win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	27%	28%	−1
San Luis win	25%	32%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Magallanes or draw	75%	68%	+7
Magallanes clean sheet	36%	–	–
San Luis clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 7.1 4.1 1 11.1 12.8 6.2 2.1 2 9.1 9.3 4.7 3 4.7 4.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Magallanes down, San Luis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Primera B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 217 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Magallanes at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Luis away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Magallanes, 1.02 for San Luis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 MAG · SAN 0–1 MAG · MAG 1–0 SAN · MAG 7–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug

MAGALLANES

LDDWWW1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

SAN LUIS

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	27	+13	50
2	Cobreloa	27	+16	48
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	27	+5	46
5	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	27	−3	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	Deportes Iquique	27	+6	34
12	D. Puerto Montt	27	−9	34
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	27	−32	22
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21