Magallanes v Antofagasta prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MagallanesDrawAntofagasta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Magallanes 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Magallanes are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Magallanes 40%, draw 28%, Antofagasta 32%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Magallanes v AntofagastaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Magallanes win40%

Draw28%

Antofagasta win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueEstadio Santiago Bueras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Magallanes

Antofagasta

8Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · magallanes winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Magallanes a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Magallanes v Antofagasta~~1.41 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 46 v 45~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Magallanes win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Antofagasta win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Magallanes or draw	68%	–	–
Magallanes clean sheet	29%	–	–
Antofagasta clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.1 8.0 5.4 2.2 1 9.3 13.1 7.5 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Magallanes down, Antofagasta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Magallanes at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Antofagasta away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Magallanes, 1.23 for Antofagasta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ANT 0–0 MAG · MAG 1–0 ANT · ANT 5–0 MAG · MAG 1–0 ANT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 6 Sept

MAGALLANES

DWWWLL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

ANTOFAGASTA

LDLWWD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21