Deportes Temuco v San Marcos de Arica prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportes TemucoDrawSan Marcos de Arica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportes Temuco 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Temuco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Temuco 42%, draw 28%, San Marcos de Arica 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Temuco v San Marcos de AricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Temuco win42%

Draw28%

San Marcos de Arica win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Temuco

San Marcos de Arica

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes temuco winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Deportes Temuco a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Temuco v San Marcos de Arica~~1.37 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 40~~12 v 8

~~The market · Deportes Temuco win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Temuco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Temuco win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
San Marcos de Arica win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Deportes Temuco or draw	71%	68%	+3
Deportes Temuco clean sheet	33%	–	–
San Marcos de Arica clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.3 8.5 5.1 1 10.7 13.5 7.0 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 4.8 3 3.6 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Temuco down, San Marcos de Arica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.78 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Temuco at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). San Marcos de Arica away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Deportes Temuco, 1.10 for San Marcos de Arica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 DEP · SAN 0–0 DEP · DEP 1–3 SAN · DEP 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept

DEPORTES TEMUCO

LWDLWD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA

WLWWLD2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21