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Deportes Temuco v Deportes Santa Cruz

Deportes Temuco

2–1Full time

Deportes Santa Cruz

Primera B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:01

Deportes Temuco 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz DEPORTES TEMUCO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Temuco win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Temuco win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportes Temuco was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Temuco v Deportes Santa Cruz
16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Deportes Temuco · On: M. Sanhueza · Off: E. Lettieri
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Deportes Temuco
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Deportes Temuco 0–0 Deportes Santa Cruz
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Deportes Temuco 1–0 Deportes Santa Cruz
45′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Deportes Temuco · On: M. Sanhueza · Off: E. Lettieri
45′🟨 YELLOW · 25' M. Sanhueza · Deportes Temuco
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Deportes Temuco 1–0 Deportes Santa Cruz · L. Acevedo
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Temuco 1–0 Deportes Santa Cruz
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: D. Tati · Off: C. Castillo
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Deportes Temuco 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Deportes Temuco 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: P. Brito · Off: C. Moreno
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: P. Brito · Off: C. Moreno
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportes Temuco · On: B. Troncoso · Off: N. A. Rivera Faundez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportes Temuco · On: R. Gonzalez · Off: D. Buonanotte
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportes Temuco · On: B. Troncoso · Off: N. A. Rivera Faundez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: Y. Islame · Off: D. Acevedo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: N. Zeineddin · Off: D. Arias
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Deportes Temuco · On: F. Reynero · Off: L. Acevedo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Deportes Temuco · On: B. Valdivia · Off: F. Ortega
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: F. Orellana · Off: G. Alucema
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Deportes Santa Cruz
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Deportes Temuco
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Deportes Temuco 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
FTFULL TIME Deportes Temuco 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
FTDeportes Temuco 2–1 Deportes Santa Cruz · Deportes Temuco win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportes Temuco win49%

Draw27%

Deportes Santa Cruz win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportes Temuco

Formation not confirmed

13 Y. Urra

35 B. Torrealba

5 E. Lettieri

28 L. Casanova

17 F. Ortega

6 P. Contreras

27 C. Nunez

18 D. Buonanotte

16 N. A. Rivera Faundez

12 C. Rocha

9 L. Acevedo

Coach · Emiliano Astorga

Substitutes

1 · J. Garrido

8 · B. Troncoso

15 · B. Valdivia

19 · D. Sanchez

11 · F. Reynero

3 · M. Sanhueza

23 · R. Gonzalez

Deportes Santa Cruz

Formation not confirmed

29 J. Dobboletta

34 C. Castillo

5 B. Camisassa

19 E. Flores

31 N. Romero

8 D. Acevedo

4 G. Alucema

14 D. Plaza

26 C. Moreno

30 D. Arias

23 N. Barrios

Coach · Dalcio Giovagnoli

Substitutes

1 · M. Henriquez

20 · H. Cavero

22 · D. Tati

6 · F. Orellana

9 · N. Zeineddin

35 · P. Brito

36 · Y. Islame

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportes Temuco

Formation not confirmed

13 Y. Urra

35 B. Torrealba

5 E. Lettieri

28 L. Casanova

17 F. Ortega

6 P. Contreras

27 C. Nunez

18 D. Buonanotte

16 N. A. Rivera Faundez

12 C. Rocha

9 L. Acevedo

Coach · Emiliano Astorga

Substitutes

1 · J. Garrido

8 · B. Troncoso

15 · B. Valdivia

19 · D. Sanchez

11 · F. Reynero

3 · M. Sanhueza

23 · R. Gonzalez

Deportes Santa Cruz

Formation not confirmed

29 J. Dobboletta

34 C. Castillo

5 B. Camisassa

19 E. Flores

31 N. Romero

8 D. Acevedo

4 G. Alucema

14 D. Plaza

26 C. Moreno

30 D. Arias

23 N. Barrios

Coach · Dalcio Giovagnoli

Substitutes

1 · M. Henriquez

20 · H. Cavero

22 · D. Tati

6 · F. Orellana

9 · N. Zeineddin

35 · P. Brito

36 · Y. Islame

Our number · deportes temuco winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Deportes Temuco a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes temuco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Temuco win	49%	47%	+2
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Deportes Santa Cruz win	24%	27%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Deportes Temuco or draw	76%	73%	+3
Deportes Temuco clean sheet	37%	–	–
Deportes Santa Cruz clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 7.0 3.9 1 11.3 12.9 6.0 2.0 2 9.3 9.3 4.7 3 4.8 4.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Temuco down, Deportes Santa Cruz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Primera B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.18 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Temuco at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Santa Cruz away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Deportes Temuco, 1.00 for Deportes Santa Cruz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.18

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~7 of 11

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–3 DEP · DEP 0–0 DEP · DEP 2–0 DEP · DEP 3–1 DEP

Form · last six in Primera B

DEPORTES TEMUCO

LWLWDL1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ

LDDWDL0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Santiago Wanderers	26	+13	44
4	Magallanes	26	+4	43
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
6	Recoleta	26	+4	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
11	Deportes Temuco	26	+4	32
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	26	−17	27
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	26	−13	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18