Deportes Santa Cruz v Rangers de Talca prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportes Santa CruzDrawRangers de Talca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportes Santa Cruz 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Santa Cruz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Santa Cruz 43%, draw 29%, Rangers de Talca 28%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Santa Cruz v Rangers de TalcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Santa Cruz win43%

Draw29%

Rangers de Talca win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Santa Cruz

Rangers de Talca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes santa cruz winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Deportes Santa Cruz a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Santa Cruz v Rangers de Talca~~1.36 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 21~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Santa Cruz win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Rangers de Talca win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Deportes Santa Cruz or draw	72%	–	–
Deportes Santa Cruz clean sheet	35%	–	–
Rangers de Talca clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.8 8.6 5.0 1 11.2 13.5 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.7 4.6 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Santa Cruz down, Rangers de Talca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Santa Cruz at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rangers de Talca away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Deportes Santa Cruz, 1.06 for Rangers de Talca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAN 0–1 DEP · RAN 2–2 DEP · DEP 0–3 RAN · RAN 2–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 8 Sept

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ

WDLLDD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

RANGERS DE TALCA

WLLWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21