Deportes Santa Cruz v Antofagasta prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Deportes Santa Cruz 0–0 Antofagasta ANTOFAGASTA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Antofagasta win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.782

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antofagasta win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Antofagasta 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Santa Cruz v Antofagasta
40′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: D. Arias · Off: N. Zeineddin
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Antofagasta win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Santa Cruz 0–0 Antofagasta
48′HALF-TIME Deportes Santa Cruz 0–0 Antofagasta
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Antofagasta win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 24–47–29
57′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 24–48–28
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Deportes Santa Cruz
65′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–56–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Antofagasta win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
72′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
78′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–73–14
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Antofagasta win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Antofagasta
90′We said Antofagasta at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
90′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Antofagasta · On: V. Aros · Off: J. D. Bandez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Antofagasta · On: F. Manzano · Off: S. Hinojosa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: C. Moreno · Off: P. Brito
91′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: Y. Islame · Off: D. Acevedo
91′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Antofagasta · On: C. Diaz · Off: A. Cuadra
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Antofagasta
FTFULL TIME Deportes Santa Cruz 0–0 Antofagasta
FTDeportes Santa Cruz 0–0 Antofagasta · Antofagasta win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Antofagasta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Santa Cruz 32%, draw 28%, Antofagasta 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Santa Cruz v AntofagastaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Santa Cruz win32%

Draw28%

Antofagasta win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 28

Line-ups

Deportes Santa Cruz

Antofagasta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Santa Cruz

Antofagasta

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportes Santa Cruz

Formation not confirmed

29 J. Dobboletta

22 D. Tati

5 B. Camisassa

19 E. Flores

31 N. Romero

4 G. Alucema

14 D. Plaza

8 D. Acevedo

35 P. Brito

9 N. Zeineddin

23 N. Barrios

Coach · Dalcio Giovagnoli

Substitutes

1 · M. Quezada

20 · H. Cavero

26 · C. Moreno

34 · C. Castillo

10 · S. Mederos

36 · Y. Islame

30 · D. Arias

Antofagasta

Formation not confirmed

12 F. Hurtado Perez

3 M. Maluenda

22 M. Suarez

4 B. Tapia

13 Z. Abuhadba

18 N. Sepulveda

26 S. Hinojosa

20 A. Cuadra

11 J. D. Bandez

9 J. Monreal

17 B. Hurtado

Coach · Luis Marcoleta

Substitutes

25 · J. P. Cisternas

6 · C. Diaz

23 · F. Siegler

31 · S. Ramirez

21 · F. Manzano

32 · V. Aros

7 · C. Bravo

Our number · antofagasta winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Antofagasta a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Santa Cruz v Antofagasta~~1.19 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 44~~14 v 5

~~The market · Antofagasta win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Antofagasta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Santa Cruz win	32%	27%	+5
Draw	28%	28%	0
Antofagasta win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Deportes Santa Cruz or draw	60%	55%	+5
Deportes Santa Cruz clean sheet	26%	–	–
Antofagasta clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.6 9.8 7.3 3.3 1 8.4 13.3 8.6 3.9 2 5.5 7.4 5.1 2.3 3 2.2 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Santa Cruz down, Antofagasta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 Primera B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Santa Cruz at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Antofagasta away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Deportes Santa Cruz, 1.37 for Antofagasta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ANT 1–1 DEP · ANT 2–1 DEP · DEP 3–0 ANT · ANT 3–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 29 Aug

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ

DDWDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

ANTOFAGASTA

WLDLWW4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	28	+4	46
5	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	27	−3	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	Deportes Iquique	27	+6	34
12	D. Puerto Montt	27	−9	34
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	27	−32	22
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21