Deportes Iquique v Union Espanola prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

Deportes Iquique 1–0 Union Espanola DEPORTES IQUIQUE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Iquique win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.413

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Iquique win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportes Iquique 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Iquique v Union Espanola
19′A goal for Deportes Iquique on 20′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 45–30–25
19′⚽ GOAL · 20' Deportes Iquique 0–0 Union Espanola
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Deportes Iquique 1–0 Union Espanola
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Union Espanola
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Deportes Iquique
36′🟨 YELLOW · 32' C. Gonzalez · Deportes Iquique
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Iquique 1–0 Union Espanola
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Deportes Iquique · On: B. Barrera · Off: C. Gonzalez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Union Espanola · On: R. Cordero · Off: M. Celis
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Union Espanola · On: A. Vilches Araneda · Off: F. Ratotti
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Union Espanola · On: C. A. Chadwick Bosco · Off: T. Tolosa Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Deportes Iquique · On: J. Pereyra · Off: D. Rojas
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Deportes Iquique · On: T. Jones · Off: A. Venezia
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Deportes Iquique · On: I. Diaz · Off: A. Ramos
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Deportes Iquique · On: L. Troncoso · Off: B. Garrido
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Union Espanola · On: K. Contreras · Off: R. Alarcon
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Union Espanola
96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Union Espanola
FTFULL TIME Deportes Iquique 1–0 Union Espanola
FTDeportes Iquique 1–0 Union Espanola · Deportes Iquique win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Iquique win48%

Draw27%

Union Espanola win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio Tierra de Campeones

Line-ups

Deportes Iquique

Union Espanola

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportes Iquique

Union Espanola

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportes Iquique

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Castillo

6 M. Lopez

14 D. Rojas

15 J. Ayala

21 F. Espinoza

26 F. Ledesma

8 A. Venezia

18 B. Garrido

20 D. Orellana

11 A. Ramos

17 C. Gonzalez

Coach · Rodrigo Guerrero

Substitutes

25 · Z. Lopez

5 · V. Concha

7 · T. Jones

23 · J. Pereyra

24 · B. Barrera

28 · L. Troncoso

31 · I. Diaz

Union Espanola

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Fierro

16 M. Ormeno

18 J. Aja

3 R. Alarcon

32 L. Molina

17 F. Massri

4 M. Celis

19 A. Araos

10 P. Aranguiz

11 F. Ratotti

20 M. Wassenne

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · E. Uribe

2 · K. Contreras

5 · W. Machado

9 · A. Vilches Araneda

28 · N. Valencia

30 · R. Cordero

38 · C. A. Chadwick Bosco

Our number · deportes iquique winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Deportes Iquique a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes iquique win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Iquique win	48%	47%	0
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Union Espanola win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	34%	−8
Deportes Iquique or draw	75%	73%	+2
Deportes Iquique clean sheet	35%	–	–
Union Espanola clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.4 7.0 4.2 1 10.6 12.9 6.4 2.3 2 8.8 9.3 4.9 3 4.5 4.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Iquique down, Union Espanola across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Primera B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Iquique at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Union Espanola away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Deportes Iquique, 1.06 for Union Espanola. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 DEP

Form · last six in Primera B

DEPORTES IQUIQUE

WLLLWW4–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

UNION ESPANOLA

WLDLDL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	27	+16	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Magallanes	27	+5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	+12	44
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18