Home › Football › Primera B › Deportes Iquique v Magallanes

Deportes Iquique v Magallanes

Deportes Iquique

4–1Full time

Magallanes

Primera B · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:30

Deportes Iquique 4–1 Magallanes DEPORTES IQUIQUE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Iquique win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.460

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.336

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Iquique win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Iquique v Magallanes
2′Little has changed for our model: Deportes Iquique 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
8′Deportes Iquique score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Deportes Iquique 1–0 Magallanes
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Deportes Iquique win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
9′We said Deportes Iquique at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
10′Deportes Iquique find the net on 10′. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Deportes Iquique 2–0 Magallanes
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Deportes Iquique win: 45% at kick-off, 89% now
12′We said Deportes Iquique at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Magallanes
45′HALF-TIME Deportes Iquique 2–0 Magallanes
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Iquique 2–0 Magallanes
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Magallanes · On: S. Coronel · Off: R. Farfan
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Deportes Iquique win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
50′We said Deportes Iquique at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Magallanes · On: D. N. Fernandez C. · Off: G. Guzman
55′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Magallanes · On: D. Figueroa · Off: A. Toledo
67′A goal for Deportes Iquique on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Deportes Iquique 3–0 Magallanes
68′We said Deportes Iquique at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Magallanes · On: I. Serpa · Off: C. Jorquera
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportes Iquique · On: C. Gonzalez · Off: B. Barrera
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Magallanes · On: C. Meneses · Off: F. Yanez
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Magallanes
88′Magallanes score on 88′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Deportes Iquique 3–1 Magallanes
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportes Iquique · On: I. Diaz · Off: A. Ramos
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportes Iquique · On: L. Troncoso · Off: B. Garrido
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Deportes Iquique · On: T. Jones · Off: A. Venezia
91′A goal for Deportes Iquique on 90′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
91′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Deportes Iquique 4–1 Magallanes
FTFULL TIME Deportes Iquique 4–1 Magallanes
FTDeportes Iquique 4–1 Magallanes · Deportes Iquique win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Iquique are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Iquique 45%, draw 27%, Magallanes 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Iquique v MagallanesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Iquique win45%

Draw27%

Magallanes win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueEstadio Tierra de Campeones

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Iquique

Magallanes

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Magallanes	28	+4	46
11	Deportes Iquique	28	+6	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes iquique winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make Deportes Iquique a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Iquique v Magallanes~~1.49 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 46~~11 v 4

~~The market · Deportes Iquique win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Iquique win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Iquique win	45%	53%	−8
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Magallanes win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
Deportes Iquique or draw	72%	77%	−5
Deportes Iquique clean sheet	32%	–	–
Magallanes clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 7.5 4.7 1 10.0 12.9 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 9.0 5.1 3 4.0 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Iquique down, Magallanes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Primera B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Iquique at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Magallanes away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Deportes Iquique, 1.13 for Magallanes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAG 4–3 DEP · MAG 1–0 DEP · DEP 1–1 MAG · MAG 2–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept

DEPORTES IQUIQUE

LLWWWD0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

MAGALLANES

DDWWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	28	+4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	28	+1	40
9	Union Espanola	28	−2	39
10	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	+6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21