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Deportes Copiapo v Deportes Santa Cruz

Deportes Copiapo

1–1Full time

Deportes Santa Cruz

Primera B · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

Deportes Copiapo 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz DEPORTES COPIAPO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportes Copiapo win~~55%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Copiapo win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportes Copiapo was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Copiapo v Deportes Santa Cruz
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Deportes Copiapo
33′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–27–53
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Deportes Copiapo 0–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 20% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Deportes Santa Cruz win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Deportes Copiapo win 47%)
35′A goal for Deportes Santa Cruz on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–27–54
36′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–28–54
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 18–28–54
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportes Copiapo 0–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Copiapo 0–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
46′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportes Copiapo · On: L. Palacios · Off: I. Ledezma
58′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
66′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: J. Delgado · Off: D. Tati
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: F. Alvarado · Off: C. Moreno
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: Y. Islame · Off: D. Acevedo
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–61–13
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Deportes Copiapo 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Deportes Santa Cruz win 74%)
71′Deportes Copiapo score on 70′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–62–12
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportes Copiapo · On: R. Orellana · Off: F. Espoz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportes Copiapo · On: S. Sanchez · Off: F. Torres
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportes Copiapo · On: S. A. Espinoza Olave · Off: G. Perez
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Deportes Copiapo · On: D. Opazo · Off: J. Santander
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: F. Orellana · Off: D. Arias
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportes Santa Cruz · On: N. Zeineddin · Off: N. Barrios
90′Full time, 1–1. We called Deportes Copiapo at 55% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Deportes Copiapo win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Deportes Copiapo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
FTFULL TIME Deportes Copiapo 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz
FTDeportes Copiapo 1–1 Deportes Santa Cruz · Deportes Copiapo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Copiapo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Copiapo 55%, draw 26%, Deportes Santa Cruz 19%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Copiapo v Deportes Santa CruzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Copiapo win55%

Draw26%

Deportes Santa Cruz win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueEstadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Copiapo

Deportes Santa Cruz

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Deportes Copiapo	28	+1	40
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes copiapo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 01:36 · locked at kick-off

55% The market39%

Us55%

~~Market~~39%

We make Deportes Copiapo a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Copiapo v Deportes Santa Cruz~~1.68 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 23~~8 v 14

~~The market · Deportes Copiapo win~~39% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Copiapo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Copiapo win	55%	39%	+16
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Deportes Santa Cruz win	19%	33%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Deportes Copiapo or draw	81%	67%	+14
Deportes Copiapo clean sheet	41%	–	–
Deportes Santa Cruz clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 6.1 3.1 1 12.1 12.1 5.1 2 10.7 9.5 4.3 3 6.0 5.3 2.4 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Copiapo down, Deportes Santa Cruz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Primera B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Santa Cruz away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Deportes Copiapo, 0.89 for Deportes Santa Cruz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 COP · COP 2–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 COP · COP 4–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept

DEPORTES COPIAPO

LDWWWL1–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ

DWDLLD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	28	+1	40
9	Union Espanola	28	−2	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21