Deportes Copiapo v Cobreloa prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Deportes Copiapo 2–1 Cobreloa DEPORTES COPIAPO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Copiapo win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Copiapo win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportes Copiapo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
28′Much as we predicted: Deportes Copiapo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
62′Deportes Copiapo find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–3
82′D. Opazo scores for Deportes Copiapo on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Deportes Copiapo win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Deportes Copiapo win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Deportes Copiapo
FTFULL TIME Deportes Copiapo 2–1 Cobreloa
FTDeportes Copiapo 2–1 Cobreloa · Deportes Copiapo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportes Copiapo win44%

Draw27%

Cobreloa win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Line-ups

Deportes Copiapo

Cobreloa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportes Copiapo

Cobreloa

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportes Copiapo

Formation not confirmed

22 N. Temperini

20 M. Filla

4 A. Ortiz

5 F. Torres

15 J. Santander

21 E. Fernandez

6 C. Zamorano

11 J. Ortiz

7 C. Ross

27 M. Lopez

28 F. Espoz

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Leyton

8 · A. Rios

10 · I. Ledezma

13 · D. Opazo

23 · M. Rojas

31 · I. Fuenzalida

9 · L. Palacios

Cobreloa

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Tapia

17 D. Tapia

5 R. Gonzalez

15 D. Garcia

6 M. Tapia

29 J. Gatica

21 C. Muga

32 F. Velazco

10 C. Insaurralde

11 G. Gotti

27 M. Sandoval

Coach · Mario Salas

Substitutes

1 · H. E. Araya Tobar

14 · T. Aranguiz

19 · Y. Navarro

22 · A. Delgado

35 · L. Wastavino

37 · J. Duma

8 · L. Cornejo

Our number · deportes copiapo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Deportes Copiapo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes copiapo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Copiapo win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Cobreloa win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Deportes Copiapo or draw	71%	69%	+2
Deportes Copiapo clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cobreloa clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.8 7.3 4.8 1 9.5 12.9 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Copiapo down, Cobreloa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,493 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.22 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cobreloa away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Deportes Copiapo, 1.18 for Cobreloa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~COB 4–1 DEP · COB 1–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 COB · COB 0–5 DEP

Form · last six in Primera B

DEPORTES COPIAPO

LLLDWW1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–0

COBRELOA

LWLDWW0–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Magallanes	27	+5	46
4	Santiago Wanderers	27	+12	44
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18