D. Puerto Montt v Union San Felipe prediction · Primera B

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

D. Puerto Montt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: D. Puerto Montt 49%, draw 29%, Union San Felipe 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on D. Puerto Montt v Union San FelipeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

D. Puerto Montt win49%

Draw29%

Union San Felipe win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueEstadio Regional de Chinquihue

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

D. Puerto Montt

Union San Felipe

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · d. puerto montt winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 18:52 · locked at kick-off

49% The market48%

Us49%

~~Market~~48%

We make D. Puerto Montt a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · D. Puerto Montt v Union San Felipe~~1.38 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 35 v 23~~12 v 15

~~The market · D. Puerto Montt win~~48% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · D. Puerto Montt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
D. Puerto Montt win	49%	48%	+1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Union San Felipe win	22%	24%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
D. Puerto Montt or draw	78%	76%	+2
D. Puerto Montt clean sheet	43%	–	–
Union San Felipe clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 11.7 8.3 3.9 1 14.1 13.3 5.3 2 10.2 8.6 3.7 3 4.7 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+D. Puerto Montt down, Union San Felipe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Primera B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

D. Puerto Montt at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Union San Felipe away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for D. Puerto Montt, 0.85 for Union San Felipe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–0 DPU · UNI 0–1 DPU · DPU 1–1 UNI · UNI 0–1 DPU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept

D. PUERTO MONTT

WLLLLD2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–0

UNION SAN FELIPE

DLLLLD0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San Luis	28	+14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	+21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	+15	47
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	28	−2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	28	+1	40
9	Union Espanola	28	−2	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	−9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	−14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	−32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	−18	21