D. Puerto Montt v San Luis prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:11

D. Puerto Montt 0–1 San Luis D. PUERTO MONTT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said D. Puerto Montt win~~39%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.723

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said D. Puerto Montt win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: D. Puerto Montt 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
14′San Luis find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
16′We said D. Puerto Montt at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
19′We said D. Puerto Montt at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
29′San Luis ahead on 14′ through F. Pastenes. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–64
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
31′We said D. Puerto Montt at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–65
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–65
42′We said D. Puerto Montt at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' D. Puerto Montt win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' San Luis win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was D. Puerto Montt win 13%)
45′SECOND HALF D. Puerto Montt 0–1 San Luis
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' D. Puerto Montt · On: G. Castillo · Off: L. A. Rojas
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' D. Puerto Montt · On: K. Egana · Off: F. Calisto
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' D. Puerto Montt · On: S. Negrete · Off: A. Sabella
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' D. Puerto Montt
59′⚽ GOAL · 14' D. Puerto Montt 0–1 San Luis · F. Pastenes
59′🟨 YELLOW · 17' A. Sabella · D. Puerto Montt
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' D. Puerto Montt · On: J. Flores · Off: S. Perez
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' San Luis
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Luis · On: G. Bustos · Off: D. Catalan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' San Luis · On: S. Vergara · Off: M. Carreno
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' San Luis · On: Y. Pinilla · Off: F. Pastenes
81′🟨 YELLOW · 83' San Luis
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' San Luis
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' San Luis · On: G. Madrigal · Off: S. Parada
92′🟥 RED CARD · 93' D. Puerto Montt
93′🟥 RED CARD · 93' D. Puerto Montt
FTFULL TIME D. Puerto Montt 0–1 San Luis
FTD. Puerto Montt 0–1 San Luis · D. Puerto Montt win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:32 · locked at kick-off

D. Puerto Montt win39%

Draw30%

San Luis win31%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:30

VenueEstadio Regional de Chinquihue

Line-ups

D. Puerto Montt

San Luis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

D. Puerto Montt

San Luis

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

D. Puerto Montt

Formation not confirmed

29 G. Collao

17 B. Nieto

2 A. Morales

4 M. Riveros

5 F. Calisto

35 L. A. Rojas

14 J. Cardenas

6 D. Diaz

18 A. Sabella

28 S. Perez

8 R. Paredes

Coach · Emilio Mancilla

Substitutes

13 · L. Ureta

9 · L. Vazquez

16 · J. Flores

15 · K. Egana

23 · G. Castillo

26 · N. Mancilla

30 · S. Negrete

San Luis

Formation not confirmed

12 F. Abarzua

18 G. Avello

6 L. Munoz

3 I. Meza

4 V. Duran

5 J. Torres

13 N. Munoz Alister

34 D. Catalan

11 M. Carreno

21 F. Pastenes

10 S. Parada

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Peranic

28 · M. Guerra Rojas

32 · A. Villegas

7 · S. Vergara

22 · G. Bustos

9 · G. Madrigal

31 · Y. Pinilla

Our number · d. puerto montt winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market24%

Us39%

~~Market~~24%

We make D. Puerto Montt a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · d. puerto montt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 24% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
D. Puerto Montt win	39%	24%	+16
Draw	30%	26%	+4
San Luis win	31%	50%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−9
D. Puerto Montt or draw	69%	50%	+20
D. Puerto Montt clean sheet	34%	–	–
San Luis clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.7 9.6 5.7 2.0 1 11.3 14.0 7.0 2.5 2 7.6 8.1 4.4 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+D. Puerto Montt down, San Luis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Primera B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

D. Puerto Montt at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Luis away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for D. Puerto Montt, 1.08 for San Luis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAN 4–1 DPU · SAN 0–0 DPU · DPU 0–1 SAN · SAN 0–3 DPU

Form · last six in Primera B

D. PUERTO MONTT

LLWLLL0–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

SAN LUIS

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	27	+16	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Magallanes	27	+5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	+21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	+12	44
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	+2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	+6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18