

Cobreloa v Recoleta
Cobreloa
RecoletaPrimera B · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Zorros del Desierto
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Cobreloa win at 52%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Cobreloa was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Cobreloa v Recoleta
- 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Recoleta
- 20′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 20′Cobreloa score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Cobreloa 1–0 Recoleta
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Cobreloa win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
- 27′Cobreloa find the net on 26′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cobreloa 2–0 Recoleta
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cobreloa win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
- 28′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 38′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′G. Gotti scores for Cobreloa on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 45′HALF-TIME Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
- 46′SECOND HALF Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
- 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
- 50′Cobreloa score on 49′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cobreloa 4–0 Recoleta
- 51′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 51′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Recoleta · On: M. Arguinarena · Off: F. Tomarelli
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Cobreloa · On: C. Insaurralde · Off: J. Gatica
- 73′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cobreloa · On: M. Sandoval · Off: A. Delgado
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cobreloa · On: J. Duma · Off: F. Velazco
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Cobreloa 4–1 Recoleta
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Recoleta · On: R. Riveros · Off: P. Sanchez
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Recoleta · On: N. Arismendy · Off: I. Lara
- 74′Recoleta find the net on 73′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Recoleta · On: F. Baez · Off: G. Alvarez
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Recoleta · On: C. Cepeda · Off: N. Carvajal
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Recoleta
- 81′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cobreloa · On: F. I. Saavedra Saavedra · Off: M. Tapia
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Cobreloa 5–1 Recoleta
- 82′A goal for Cobreloa on 81′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Recoleta
- 86′A red card for Recoleta on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 86′Cobreloa score on 86′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta
- 87′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' B. Viveros · Recoleta
- FTFULL TIME Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta
- FTCobreloa 6–1 Recoleta · Cobreloa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCobreloa are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cobreloa 52%, draw 26%, Recoleta 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Cobreloa win52%
Recoleta win22%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 28
VenueEstadio Zorros del Desierto
Match timeline
All events
CobreloaMIN
RecoletaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Cobreloa
Recoleta
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cobreloa
Recoleta
Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B
Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Cobreloa
Formation not confirmed
1 H. E. Araya Tobar
17 D. Tapia
15 D. Garcia
5 R. Gonzalez
6 M. Tapia
29 J. Gatica
14 T. Aranguiz
21 C. Muga
22 A. Delgado
32 F. Velazco
11 G. Gotti
Coach · Mario Salas
Substitutes
30 · D. Tapia
38 · F. I. Saavedra Saavedra
8 · L. Cornejo
7 · C. Insaurralde
19 · Y. Navarro
27 · M. Sandoval
37 · J. Duma
Recoleta
Formation not confirmed
23 A. Salazar
4 F. Tomarelli
5 F. Alarcon
16 B. Viveros
14 I. Lara
21 G. Alvarez
6 J. Espinoza
17 N. Carvajal
20 C. Gonzalez
9 G. Estigarribia
19 P. Sanchez
Coach · Esteban Arrue Pardo Francisco
Substitutes
22 · J. Vargas
10 · M. Arguinarena
15 · F. Baez
18 · C. Cepeda
3 · N. Arismendy
27 · F. Flores
33 · R. Riveros
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Cobreloa
Formation not confirmed
1 H. E. Araya Tobar
17 D. Tapia
15 D. Garcia
5 R. Gonzalez
6 M. Tapia
29 J. Gatica
14 T. Aranguiz
21 C. Muga
22 A. Delgado
32 F. Velazco
11 G. Gotti
Coach · Mario Salas
Substitutes
30 · D. Tapia
38 · F. I. Saavedra Saavedra
8 · L. Cornejo
7 · C. Insaurralde
19 · Y. Navarro
27 · M. Sandoval
37 · J. Duma
Recoleta
Formation not confirmed
23 A. Salazar
4 F. Tomarelli
5 F. Alarcon
16 B. Viveros
14 I. Lara
21 G. Alvarez
6 J. Espinoza
17 N. Carvajal
20 C. Gonzalez
9 G. Estigarribia
19 P. Sanchez
Coach · Esteban Arrue Pardo Francisco
Substitutes
22 · J. Vargas
10 · M. Arguinarena
15 · F. Baez
18 · C. Cepeda
3 · N. Arismendy
27 · F. Flores
33 · R. Riveros
We make Cobreloa a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobreloa win | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Recoleta win | 22% | 21% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Cobreloa or draw | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Cobreloa clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Recoleta clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 Aug
COBRELOA
RECOLETA
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis | 27 | +13 | 50 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 27 | +16 | 48 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 28 | +15 | 47 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 27 | +5 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 27 | +21 | 44 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 27 | +3 | 41 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | +2 | 40 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 27 | +6 | 39 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 27 | −3 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | +5 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 27 | +6 | 34 |
| 12 | D. Puerto Montt | 27 | −9 | 34 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | −16 | 30 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | −14 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 27 | −32 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 28 | −18 | 21 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
San Luis
Santiago Wanderers
Magallanes
Antofagasta
Deportes Copiapo
San Marcos de Arica
Union Espanola
Deportes Temuco
Deportes Iquique
D. Puerto Montt
Curico Unido
Deportes Santa Cruz
Union San Felipe
Rangers de Talca