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Cobreloa v Recoleta

Cobreloa
6–1Full time
Recoleta

Primera B · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta COBRELOA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cobreloa win52%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.352
The market’s Brier score0.309

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cobreloa win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cobreloa was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Cobreloa v Recoleta
  4. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Recoleta
  5. 20′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  6. 20′Cobreloa score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  7. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Cobreloa 1–0 Recoleta
  8. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Cobreloa win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
  9. 27′Cobreloa find the net on 26′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  10. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cobreloa 2–0 Recoleta
  11. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cobreloa win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
  12. 28′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  13. 38′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 45′G. Gotti scores for Cobreloa on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
  17. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cobreloa 3–0 Recoleta
  19. 50′Cobreloa score on 49′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cobreloa 4–0 Recoleta
  21. 51′We published Cobreloa at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 51′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Recoleta · On: M. Arguinarena · Off: F. Tomarelli
  24. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Cobreloa · On: C. Insaurralde · Off: J. Gatica
  25. 73′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cobreloa · On: M. Sandoval · Off: A. Delgado
  27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cobreloa · On: J. Duma · Off: F. Velazco
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Cobreloa 4–1 Recoleta
  29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Recoleta · On: R. Riveros · Off: P. Sanchez
  30. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Recoleta · On: N. Arismendy · Off: I. Lara
  31. 74′Recoleta find the net on 73′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Recoleta · On: F. Baez · Off: G. Alvarez
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Recoleta · On: C. Cepeda · Off: N. Carvajal
  34. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Recoleta
  35. 81′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cobreloa · On: F. I. Saavedra Saavedra · Off: M. Tapia
  37. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Cobreloa 5–1 Recoleta
  38. 82′A goal for Cobreloa on 81′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Recoleta
  40. 86′A red card for Recoleta on 85′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 86′Cobreloa score on 86′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta
  43. 87′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' B. Viveros · Recoleta
  45. FTFULL TIME Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta
  46. FTCobreloa 6–1 Recoleta · Cobreloa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cobreloa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cobreloa 52%, draw 26%, Recoleta 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cobreloa v RecoletaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cobreloa win52%
Draw26%
Recoleta win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Zorros del Desierto

Line-ups

Cobreloa

Recoleta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cobreloa

Recoleta

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Cobreloa27+1648
6Recoleta27+341

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cobreloa

Formation not confirmed

1 H. E. Araya Tobar

17 D. Tapia

15 D. Garcia

5 R. Gonzalez

6 M. Tapia

29 J. Gatica

14 T. Aranguiz

21 C. Muga

22 A. Delgado

32 F. Velazco

11 G. Gotti

Coach · Mario Salas

Substitutes

30 · D. Tapia

38 · F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

8 · L. Cornejo

7 · C. Insaurralde

19 · Y. Navarro

27 · M. Sandoval

37 · J. Duma

Recoleta

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Salazar

4 F. Tomarelli

5 F. Alarcon

16 B. Viveros

14 I. Lara

21 G. Alvarez

6 J. Espinoza

17 N. Carvajal

20 C. Gonzalez

9 G. Estigarribia

19 P. Sanchez

Coach · Esteban Arrue Pardo Francisco

Substitutes

22 · J. Vargas

10 · M. Arguinarena

15 · F. Baez

18 · C. Cepeda

3 · N. Arismendy

27 · F. Flores

33 · R. Riveros

Our number · cobreloa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 16:42 · locked at kick-off
52% The market55%
Us52%
Market55%

We make Cobreloa a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cobreloa v Recoleta1.66 – 1.02
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 AugW3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 48 v 412 v 6
The market · Cobreloa win55% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 18:20
Our probability · Cobreloa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cobreloa win52%55%−3
Draw26%25%+1
Recoleta win22%21%+1
Over 2.5 goals50%51%−1
Both teams to score52%53%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals28%31%−3
Cobreloa or draw78%79%−1
Cobreloa clean sheet36%––
Recoleta clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.7 6.3 3.6 1 10.7 12.3 5.9 2 9.4 9.5 4.8 3 5.2 5.3 2.7 4 2.2 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cobreloa down, Recoleta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.71
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsREC 2–2 COB · COB 4–0 REC · REC 0–1 COB · REC 1–2 COB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 30 Aug

COBRELOA

WLDWWL2–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

RECOLETA

DWWDWL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1San Luis27+1350
2Cobreloa27+1648
3Santiago Wanderers28+1547
4Magallanes27+546
5Antofagasta27+2144
6Recoleta27+341
7Deportes Copiapo27+240
8San Marcos de Arica27+639
9Union Espanola27−336
10Deportes Temuco27+535
11Deportes Iquique27+634
12D. Puerto Montt27−934
13Curico Unido27−1630
14Deportes Santa Cruz27−1422
15Union San Felipe27−3222
16Rangers de Talca28−1821

The competition's standings before kick-off.