Antofagasta v San Marcos de Arica prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Antofagasta 3–0 San Marcos de Arica ANTOFAGASTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Antofagasta win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antofagasta win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Antofagasta 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
3′Little has changed for our model: Antofagasta 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
44′22′ and it is 1–0: B. Hurtado on the scoresheet for Antofagasta. 1–0 · 77–17–5
45′Antofagasta ahead on 45′ through J. Monreal. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Antofagasta win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Antofagasta win: 48% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Antofagasta 2–0 San Marcos de Arica
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Antofagasta win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Antofagasta win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Antofagasta
57′🟥 RED CARD · 54' D. Rojas · Antofagasta
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' San Marcos de Arica · On: A. Cazula · Off: M. Iturra
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Antofagasta · On: V. Aros · Off: S. Hinojosa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' San Marcos de Arica · On: N. Zedan · Off: G. Cubillos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' San Marcos de Arica · On: D. Pereira · Off: A. Galleguillos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Antofagasta · On: J. D. Bandez · Off: J. Monreal
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Antofagasta · On: J. D. Bandez · Off: J. Monreal
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: N. Donadell · Off: C. Rencoret
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Marcos de Arica · On: A. Abalos · Off: G. Reyes
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Antofagasta 3–0 San Marcos de Arica
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' San Marcos de Arica
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' San Marcos de Arica
FTFULL TIME Antofagasta 3–0 San Marcos de Arica
FTAntofagasta 3–0 San Marcos de Arica · Antofagasta win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Antofagasta win48%

Draw27%

San Marcos de Arica win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueEstadio Regional de Antofagasta

Line-ups

Antofagasta

San Marcos de Arica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Antofagasta

San Marcos de Arica

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Antofagasta

Formation not confirmed

12 F. Hurtado Perez

3 M. Maluenda

22 M. Suarez

4 B. Tapia

13 Z. Abuhadba

18 N. Sepulveda

26 S. Hinojosa

20 A. Cuadra

10 D. Rojas

9 J. Monreal

17 B. Hurtado

Coach · Luis Marcoleta

Substitutes

25 · J. P. Cisternas

6 · C. Diaz

21 · F. Manzano

24 · P. Castro

32 · V. Aros

7 · C. Bravo

11 · J. D. Bandez

San Marcos de Arica

Formation not confirmed

13 B. Tapia

2 R. Campos

34 A. Barboza

8 A. Barrios

15 G. Cubillos

4 M. Iturra

26 C. Rencoret

19 A. Maidana

18 A. Galleguillos

9 C. Melivilu Fuentes

16 G. Reyes

Coach · German Cavalieri

Substitutes

1 · R. Saracho

23 · A. Cazula

21 · N. Orrego

24 · D. Pereira

11 · N. Zedan

20 · A. Abalos

22 · N. Donadell

Our number · antofagasta winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Antofagasta a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · antofagasta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antofagasta win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
San Marcos de Arica win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	0
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Antofagasta or draw	75%	77%	−2
Antofagasta clean sheet	35%	–	–
San Marcos de Arica clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.5 7.1 4.1 1 10.9 12.9 6.3 2.2 2 9.0 9.3 4.8 3 4.6 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antofagasta down, San Marcos de Arica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,493 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antofagasta at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Marcos de Arica away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Antofagasta, 1.04 for San Marcos de Arica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–1 ANT · SAN 0–0 ANT · ANT 2–3 SAN · SAN 1–1 ANT

Form · last six in Primera B

ANTOFAGASTA

WWLDLW3–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA

LLWLWW1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	26	+17	48
2	San Luis	26	+12	47
3	Magallanes	27	+5	46
4	Santiago Wanderers	27	+12	44
5	Antofagasta	26	+18	41
6	Recoleta	27	+3	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	26	+9	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	+1	37
9	Union Espanola	26	−2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	+5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	−8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	+5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	−16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	−14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	−28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	−19	18