Antofagasta v Curico Unido prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AntofagastaDrawCurico Unido

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Antofagasta 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Antofagasta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Antofagasta 58%, draw 25%, Curico Unido 18%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Antofagasta v Curico UnidoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Antofagasta win58%

Draw25%

Curico Unido win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueEstadio Regional de Antofagasta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Antofagasta

Curico Unido

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chilean Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · antofagasta winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off

58% The market60%

Us58%

~~Market~~60%

We make Antofagasta a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Antofagasta v Curico Unido~~1.76 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 45 v 31~~5 v 13

~~The market · Antofagasta win~~60% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Antofagasta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antofagasta win	58%	60%	−2
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Curico Unido win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Antofagasta or draw	82%	83%	−1
Antofagasta clean sheet	42%	–	–
Curico Unido clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 5.6 2.8 1 12.0 11.7 4.8 2 11.2 9.6 4.2 3 6.6 5.6 2.4 4 2.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antofagasta down, Curico Unido across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,512 Primera B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.0% of games this season, across 230 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antofagasta at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Curico Unido away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Antofagasta, 0.87 for Curico Unido. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CUR 1–0 ANT · ANT 0–2 CUR · CUR 1–0 ANT · CUR 0–2 ANT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 5 Sept

ANTOFAGASTA

LDLWWD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

CURICO UNIDO

LWLLWD0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cobreloa	29	+22	54
2	San Luis	29	+14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	+16	50
4	Magallanes	29	+1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	+21	45
6	Recoleta	29	−2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	+1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	+6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	−3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	+9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	−7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	+5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	−16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	−14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	−34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	−19	21