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Union La Calera v Coquimbo Unido
Union La CaleraCoquimbo UnidoCopa Chile · WED 21 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Coquimbo Unido are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Union La Calera 32%, draw 24%, Coquimbo Unido 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded
Union La Calera win32%Coquimbo Unido win44%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 00:00
RoundQuarter-finals
Match timeline
All events
Union La CaleraMINCoquimbo UnidoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido
Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División
Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera win | 32% | 42% | −10 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Coquimbo Unido win | 44% | 31% | +13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 49% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Union La Calera or draw | 56% | 69% | −13 |
| Union La Calera clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Coquimbo Unido clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Copa Chile this season · since 27 June
UNION LA CALERA
COQUIMBO UNIDO