York United v Atlético Ottawa prediction · Canadian Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

York UnitedDrawAtlético Ottawa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético Ottawa 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Ottawa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: York United 34%, draw 23%, Atlético Ottawa 43%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on York United v Atlético OttawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

York United win34%

Draw23%

Atlético Ottawa win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueYork Lions Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

York United

Atlético Ottawa

9Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Canadian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	−2	43
7	York United	27	−24	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético ottawa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Atlético Ottawa a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · York United v Atlético Ottawa~~1.53 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 43~~7 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
York United win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Atlético Ottawa win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
York United or draw	57%	–	–
York United clean sheet	18%	–	–
Atlético Ottawa clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 6.3 5.7 3.4 1 5.5 10.1 8.6 5.1 2.3 2 4.4 7.5 6.6 3.9 3 2.3 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+York United down, Atlético Ottawa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 691 Canadian Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

York United at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Ottawa away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for York United, 1.77 for Atlético Ottawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–1 YOR · ATL 1–1 YOR · YOR 4–1 ATL · YOR 2–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept

YORK UNITED

DLWLLL3–3 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–3

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA

LLWWWL0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	27	+34	57
2	Forge	27	+27	57
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	−2	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	+3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	−4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	−5	28
7	York United	27	−24	27
8	Pacific FC	27	−29	14