Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Canadian Premier League › Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC

Back
Canada flag

Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC

Vancouver FC
2–1Full time
HFX Wanderers FC

Canadian Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Willoughby Community Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 06:01
Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC VANCOUVER FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vancouver FC win40%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.541
The market’s Brier score0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver FC win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vancouver FC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC
  4. 24′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Vancouver FC 1–0 HFX Wanderers FC
  6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 26′24′: elage bah on the scoresheet for Vancouver FC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–12
  9. 42′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  11. 44′8 shots for Vancouver FC, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–37–30
  12. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 45′HFX Wanderers FC level it on 44′ through Lucas Olguin. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–37–30
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
  17. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Vancouver FC win 33%)
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vancouver FC · On: Aboubacar Traore · Off: elage bah
  19. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' HFX Wanderers FC · On: A. Reid · Off: Liam MacKenzie
  20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  21. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Isak Ssewankambo · Vancouver FC
  22. 59′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–46–26
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Francesco Troisi · Off: Ilan Ahmed Hassan
  24. 67′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vancouver FC · On: Lys Mousset · Off: Terran Campbell
  26. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Reid · HFX Wanderers FC
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vancouver FC · On: Marcello Polisi · Off: Isak Ssewankambo
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vancouver FC · On: Benjamin Lee · Off: Emrick Fotsing
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  30. 74′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
  31. 75′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  32. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC
  33. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 83% now
  34. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Vancouver FC win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  35. 76′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  36. 77′Matteo.Campagna scores for Vancouver FC on 76′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  37. 79′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  38. 82′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Andre Rampersad · Off: S. Zitman
  41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Tavio Ciccarelli · Off: Miguel Arilla Guinot
  42. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vancouver FC · On: Nicolás Mezquida · Off: Luis Toomey
  43. 90′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  44. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 40% on Vancouver FC comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  45. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Jabu Deng · Off: Lucas Olguin
  46. FTFULL TIME Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC
  47. FTVancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC · Vancouver FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vancouver FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vancouver FC 40%, draw 25%, HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vancouver FC win40%
Draw25%
HFX Wanderers FC win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 03:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWilloughby Community Park

Line-ups

Vancouver FC

4-2-3-1

HFX Wanderers FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vancouver FC

HFX Wanderers FC

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Canadian Premier League

Last match: 12 Oct · Canadian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Vancouver FC26+234
6HFX Wanderers FC26−428

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vancouver FC

4-2-3-1

1 C. Irving

3 M. Doner

5 M. Campagna

30 T. Field

23 K. Proctor

4 I. Ssewankambo

8 L. Toomey

7 E. Bah

17 E. Fotsing

10 M. Amissi

14 T. Campbell

Coach · Martin Nash

Substitutes

33 · H. Regitnig

2 · P. Gee

20 · N. Mezquida

16 · B. Lee

21 · M. Polisi

9 · L. Mousset

11 · A. Traore

HFX Wanderers FC

4-2-3-1

1 M. Carducci

21 J. Alphonse

26 T. Meilleur-Gigeuere

16 K. Sow

33 I. A. Hassan

5 L. Olguin

22 S. Zitman

25 L. MacKenzie

23 M. Arilla

8 I. Johnston

14 J. Bahamboula

Coach · Vanni Sartini

Substitutes

12 · S. Astridge

17 · F. Troisi

4 · J. Deng

37 · C. Trestrail

18 · A. Rampersad

11 · A. Reid

20 · T. Ciccarelli

Our number · vancouver fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market48%
Us40%
Market48%

We make Vancouver FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC1.55 – 1.43
Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 6 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 34 v 284 v 6
The market · Vancouver FC win48% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 02:37
Our probability · Vancouver FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vancouver FC win40%48%−8
Draw25%26%−1
HFX Wanderers FC win35%26%+9
Over 2.5 goals57%58%−1
Both teams to score59%61%−2
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%38%−3
Vancouver FC or draw65%74%−9
Vancouver FC clean sheet24%––
HFX Wanderers FC clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.6 7.1 5.2 2.5 1 7.8 11.4 7.9 3.8 2 6.2 8.6 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vancouver FC down, HFX Wanderers FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsHFX 1–0 VAN · HFX 1–0 VAN · VAN 0–1 HFX · VAN 3–1 HFX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

VANCOUVER FC

WLDDDD3–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

HFX WANDERERS FC

LWWLDD1–3 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cavalry FC26+3254
2Forge26+2654
3Atlético Ottawa26−143
4Vancouver FC26+234
5Supra du Quebec26−732
6HFX Wanderers FC26−428
7York United26−2127
8Pacific FC26−2714

The competition's standings before kick-off.