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Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC
Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Willoughby Community Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver FC win at 40%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Vancouver FC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
- 1′KICK-OFF Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC
- 24′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Vancouver FC 1–0 HFX Wanderers FC
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
- 26′24′: elage bah on the scoresheet for Vancouver FC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–12
- 42′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
- 44′8 shots for Vancouver FC, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–37–30
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
- 45′HFX Wanderers FC level it on 44′ through Lucas Olguin. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–37–30
- 45′HALF-TIME Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
- 45′SECOND HALF Vancouver FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers FC
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Vancouver FC win 33%)
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vancouver FC · On: Aboubacar Traore · Off: elage bah
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' HFX Wanderers FC · On: A. Reid · Off: Liam MacKenzie
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Isak Ssewankambo · Vancouver FC
- 59′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–46–26
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Francesco Troisi · Off: Ilan Ahmed Hassan
- 67′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vancouver FC · On: Lys Mousset · Off: Terran Campbell
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Reid · HFX Wanderers FC
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vancouver FC · On: Marcello Polisi · Off: Isak Ssewankambo
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vancouver FC · On: Benjamin Lee · Off: Emrick Fotsing
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 74′We said Vancouver FC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
- 75′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 83% now
- 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Vancouver FC win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
- 76′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
- 77′Matteo.Campagna scores for Vancouver FC on 76′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
- 79′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
- 82′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Vancouver FC win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Andre Rampersad · Off: S. Zitman
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Tavio Ciccarelli · Off: Miguel Arilla Guinot
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vancouver FC · On: Nicolás Mezquida · Off: Luis Toomey
- 90′We said Vancouver FC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
- 90′2–1 at the end. Our 40% on Vancouver FC comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' HFX Wanderers FC · On: Jabu Deng · Off: Lucas Olguin
- FTFULL TIME Vancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC
- FTVancouver FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers FC · Vancouver FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassVancouver FC are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Vancouver FC 40%, draw 25%, HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Vancouver FC win40%
HFX Wanderers FC win35%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 03:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueWilloughby Community Park
Match timeline
All events
Vancouver FCMIN
HFX Wanderers FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Vancouver FC
4-2-3-1
HFX Wanderers FC
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Vancouver FC
HFX Wanderers FC
Last match: 10 Oct · Canadian Premier League
Last match: 12 Oct · Canadian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Vancouver FC
4-2-3-1
1 C. Irving
3 M. Doner
5 M. Campagna
30 T. Field
23 K. Proctor
4 I. Ssewankambo
8 L. Toomey
7 E. Bah
17 E. Fotsing
10 M. Amissi
14 T. Campbell
Coach · Martin Nash
Substitutes
33 · H. Regitnig
2 · P. Gee
20 · N. Mezquida
16 · B. Lee
21 · M. Polisi
9 · L. Mousset
11 · A. Traore
HFX Wanderers FC
4-2-3-1
1 M. Carducci
21 J. Alphonse
26 T. Meilleur-Gigeuere
16 K. Sow
33 I. A. Hassan
5 L. Olguin
22 S. Zitman
25 L. MacKenzie
23 M. Arilla
8 I. Johnston
14 J. Bahamboula
Coach · Vanni Sartini
Substitutes
12 · S. Astridge
17 · F. Troisi
4 · J. Deng
37 · C. Trestrail
18 · A. Rampersad
11 · A. Reid
20 · T. Ciccarelli
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Vancouver FC
4-2-3-1
1 C. Irving
3 M. Doner
5 M. Campagna
30 T. Field
23 K. Proctor
4 I. Ssewankambo
8 L. Toomey
7 E. Bah
17 E. Fotsing
10 M. Amissi
14 T. Campbell
Coach · Martin Nash
Substitutes
33 · H. Regitnig
2 · P. Gee
20 · N. Mezquida
16 · B. Lee
21 · M. Polisi
9 · L. Mousset
11 · A. Traore
HFX Wanderers FC
4-2-3-1
1 M. Carducci
21 J. Alphonse
26 T. Meilleur-Gigeuere
16 K. Sow
33 I. A. Hassan
5 L. Olguin
22 S. Zitman
25 L. MacKenzie
23 M. Arilla
8 I. Johnston
14 J. Bahamboula
Coach · Vanni Sartini
Substitutes
12 · S. Astridge
17 · F. Troisi
4 · J. Deng
37 · C. Trestrail
18 · A. Rampersad
11 · A. Reid
20 · T. Ciccarelli
We make Vancouver FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC win | 40% | 48% | −8 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| HFX Wanderers FC win | 35% | 26% | +9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Vancouver FC or draw | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Vancouver FC clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| HFX Wanderers FC clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 6 Sept
VANCOUVER FC
HFX WANDERERS FC
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | +32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | +26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | −1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | +2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | −7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | −4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | −21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | −27 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Cavalry FC
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
Supra du Quebec
York United
Pacific FC