Supra du Quebec v York United prediction · Canadian Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 02:30

Supra du Quebec 3–0 York United SUPRA DU QUEBEC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Supra du Quebec win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.304

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Supra du Quebec win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Supra du Quebec was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–30
1′KICK-OFF Supra du Quebec v York United
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' York United
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Max Ferrari · York United
45′HALF-TIME Supra du Quebec 0–0 York United
46′A red card for York United on 44′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 39–34–27
46′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Max Ferrari · York United
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Sean Rea · Supra du Quebec
47′SECOND HALF Supra du Quebec 0–0 York United
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Supra du Quebec win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
50′Supra du Quebec have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–36–26
53′We published Supra du Quebec at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Supra du Quebec 1–0 York United
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Supra du Quebec win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
54′An own goal by York United's Kembo·Kibato on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
55′We published Supra du Quebec at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' York United · On: Shola Jimoh · Off: David Peraza
62′We published Supra du Quebec at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Supra du Quebec 2–0 York United
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Supra du Quebec win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
64′62′: Sean Rea on the scoresheet for Supra du Quebec, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Supra du Quebec · On: Omar El Kalkouli · Off: David Choiniere
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Supra du Quebec · On: S. Mlah · Off: Aboubacar Sissoko
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' York United · On: Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke · Off: Beni Badibanga
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Supra du Quebec win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Supra du Quebec · On: Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos · Off: Ibrahim Conde
84′We published Supra du Quebec at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Supra du Quebec 3–0 York United
89′Supra du Quebec ahead on 87′ through Noah Lauren Trudel dos Santos. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Supra du Quebec 3–0 York United
FTSupra du Quebec 3–0 York United · Supra du Quebec win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Supra du Quebec are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Supra du Quebec 48%, draw 22%, York United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Supra du Quebec v York UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Supra du Quebec win48%

Draw22%

York United win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

Line-ups

Supra du Quebec

York United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Supra du Quebec

York United

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Canadian Premier League

Last match: 12 Oct · Canadian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Supra du Quebec	26	−7	32
7	York United	26	−21	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Supra du Quebec

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Milli

15 Z. Brault-Guillard

2 C. Auguste

4 M. Chretien

11 D. Abzi

33 A. Sissoko

6 A. Biello

7 D. Choiniere

10 S. Rea

9 L. A. Kwemi

99 I. Conde

Coach · –

Substitutes

80 · M. Diop

23 · Z. Fernandez

3 · T. Lebeuf

24 · S. Mlah

8 · O. El Kalkouli

92 · N. Santos

19 · J. McInerney

York United

4-2-3-1

12 I. Pavela

6 R. Lopez

3 L. Singh

4 O. Leon

16 M. Ferrari

13 L. Accettola

7 S. Yeates

38 D. Peraza

39 B. Badibanga

21 K. Kibato

77 T. Skublak

Coach · Mauro Eustaquio

Substitutes

17 · A. Campos

28 · J. Costa

36 · K. Clarke

9 · S. Gonzales

19 · S. Jimoh

37 · N. Andrada

Our number · supra du quebec winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Supra du Quebec a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Supra du Quebec v York United~~1.96 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 32 v 27~~5 v 7

~~The market · Supra du Quebec win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Supra du Quebec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Supra du Quebec win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	22%	24%	−2
York United win	30%	21%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Both teams to score	67%	66%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Supra du Quebec or draw	70%	79%	−9
Supra du Quebec clean sheet	22%	–	–
York United clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 4.6 3.6 1 5.9 9.3 6.9 3.5 2 5.9 8.8 6.7 3.4 3 3.9 5.8 4.4 2.2 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Supra du Quebec down, York United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 687 Canadian Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Canadian Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Supra du Quebec at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). York United away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Supra du Quebec, 1.52 for York United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~YOR 1–2 SUP · YOR 1–1 SUP · SUP 3–1 YOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Canadian Premier League this season · since 12 Sept

SUPRA DU QUEBEC

LWLWWD0–2 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

YORK UNITED

LDLWLL1–4 · 3–3 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	26	+32	54
2	Forge	26	+26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	−1	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	+2	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	−7	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	26	−4	28
7	York United	26	−21	27
8	Pacific FC	26	−27	14